Ethiopia: Durum Wheat Market 2024

Durum Wheat Market Size in Ethiopia

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was decline in the Ethiopian durum wheat market, when its value decreased by -2.1% to $X. Overall, the total consumption indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +80.3% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $X in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Durum Wheat Production in Ethiopia

In value terms, durum wheat production amounted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a slight increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 78% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $X in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In 2022, the average durum wheat yield in Ethiopia expanded markedly to X tons per ha, increasing by 5.8% on 2021. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 16%. The durum wheat yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The durum wheat harvested area in Ethiopia fell slightly to X ha in 2022, waning by -3.1% against the previous year's figure. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 6.6%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of X ha, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Durum Wheat Exports

Exports from Ethiopia

In 2022, overseas shipments of durum wheat decreased by -63.2% to X tons, falling for the second consecutive year after four years of growth. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 262%. The exports peaked at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, durum wheat exports shrank significantly to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 236% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Israel (X tons) was the main destination for durum wheat exports from Ethiopia, with a 81% share of total exports. Moreover, durum wheat exports to Israel exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the United States (X tons), fourfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume to Israel amounted to +5.4%.

In value terms, Israel ($X) emerged as the key foreign market for durum wheat exports from Ethiopia, comprising 77% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($X), with a 23% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value to Israel stood at +11.0%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average durum wheat export price amounted to $X per ton, surging by 30% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 66% against the previous year. The export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat for the major external markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Israel totaled $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the United States (+8.7%).

Durum Wheat Imports

Imports into Ethiopia

In 2022, the amount of durum wheat imported into Ethiopia reduced notably to X tons, waning by -15.1% on 2021 figures. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 297% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons, and then shrank markedly in the following year.

In value terms, durum wheat imports amounted to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 309%. Imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Ukraine (X tons), the United States (X tons) and Russia (X tons) were the main suppliers of durum wheat imports to Ethiopia, together comprising 89% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +60.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Ukraine ($X), the United States ($X) and Russia ($X) appeared to be the largest durum wheat suppliers to Ethiopia, together comprising 91% of total imports.

Among the main suppliers, Russia, with a CAGR of +59.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average durum wheat import price amounted to $X per ton, rising by 18% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.8%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Ukraine ($X per ton), while the price for Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+5.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform