Ethiopia: Grain Market 2025

Grain Market Size in Ethiopia

In 2022, after six years of growth, there was decline in the Ethiopian grain market, when its value decreased by X% to $X. The market value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Grain Production in Ethiopia

In value terms, grain production rose significantly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production posted a temperate increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by X%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

In 2022, the average yield of grain in Ethiopia was estimated at X tons per ha, approximately reflecting 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of X% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average grain yield attained the maximum level at X tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of grain production in Ethiopia dropped slightly to X ha, approximately mirroring 2021. Overall, the harvested area, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the harvested area increased by X% against the previous year. The grain harvested area peaked at X ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Grain Exports

Exports from Ethiopia

In 2022, overseas shipments of grain decreased by X% to X tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a mild expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by X%. The exports peaked at X tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grain exports reduced rapidly to $X in 2022. Overall, exports, however, posted a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by X%. The exports peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Kenya (X tons), South Sudan (X tons) and Israel (X tons) were the main destinations of grain exports from Ethiopia, with a combined X% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kenya (with a CAGR of X%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Sudan ($X), Kenya ($X) and the United States ($X) constituted the largest markets for grain exported from Ethiopia worldwide, with a combined X% share of total exports.

Kenya, with a CAGR of X%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average grain export price amounted to $X per ton, dropping by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain export price increased by X% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of X% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Kenya ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the United Arab Emirates (X%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Grain Imports

Imports into Ethiopia

In 2022, approx. X tons of grain were imported into Ethiopia; with a decrease of X% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a tangible increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by X%. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, grain imports declined to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by X%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports by Country

The United States (X tons), Ukraine (X tons) and Argentina (X tons) were the main suppliers of grain imports to Ethiopia, together comprising X% of total imports. India, Russia, Bulgaria and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further X%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by India (with a CAGR of X%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($X) constituted the largest supplier of grain to Ethiopia, comprising X% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Ukraine ($X), with a X% share of total imports. It was followed by Argentina, with a X% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from the United States stood at X%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Ukraine (X% per year) and Argentina (X% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average grain import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, growing by X% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain import price increased by X% against 2016 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Argentina ($X per ton), while the price for India ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (X%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform