GCC: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in GCC

In 2022, the GCC wheat market decreased by -5.5% to $X for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a pronounced setback. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Production in GCC

In value terms, wheat production expanded slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 161% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The country with the largest volume of wheat production was Saudi Arabia (X tons), comprising approx. 99% of total volume.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Saudi Arabia amounted to -3.7%.

In 2022, the average yield of wheat in GCC shrank slightly to X tons per ha, with a decrease of -2.4% against the previous year. Overall, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the yield increased by 8.5% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then dropped in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the wheat harvested area in GCC declined slightly to X ha, waning by -2.4% on the previous year's figure. Overall, the harvested area saw a noticeable contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 19%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Wheat Exports

Exports in GCC

In 2022, overseas shipments of wheat increased by 42% to X tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after three years of decline. Overall, exports continue to indicate strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when exports increased by 603%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat exports declined to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports showed buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when exports increased by 283%. The level of export peaked at $X in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports by Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (X tons) was the major exporter of wheat in GCC, generating 98% of total export.

The United Arab Emirates was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wheat exports, with a CAGR of +11.5% from 2012 to 2022. While the share of the United Arab Emirates (+7.4 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($X) also remains the largest wheat supplier in GCC.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United Arab Emirates amounted to +13.0%.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in GCC stood at $X per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -37.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed slight growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 87%. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2021, and then shrank dramatically in the following year.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for the United Arab Emirates.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for the United Arab Emirates amounted to +1.3% per year.

Wheat Imports

Imports in GCC

In 2022, the amount of wheat imported in GCC totaled X tons, increasing by 2.3% against 2021 figures. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 35%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports dropped slightly to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw a slight decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Saudi Arabia (X tons) represented the key importer of wheat, mixing up 46% of total imports. It was distantly followed by the United Arab Emirates (X tons), Oman (X tons) and Kuwait (X tons), together constituting a 51% share of total imports. Bahrain (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Bahrain (with a CAGR of +6.1%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in GCC were Saudi Arabia ($X), the United Arab Emirates ($X) and Kuwait ($X), with a combined 84% share of total imports. Oman and Bahrain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

Bahrain, with a CAGR of +7.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in GCC amounted to $X per ton, declining by -6.7% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a mild slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the import price increased by 19%. Over the period under review, import prices attained the peak figure at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Bahrain ($X per ton), while Oman ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bahrain (+1.2%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform