Kenya: Ammonium Nitrate Market 2024

Ammonium Nitrate Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan ammonium nitrate market skyrocketed to $X in 2021, with an increase of 65% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded prominent growth. Ammonium nitrate consumption peaked in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Ammonium Nitrate Exports

Exports from Kenya

In 2021, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas shipments of ammonium nitrate, when their volume decreased by -55.1% to X tons. Overall, exports showed a abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 206%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at X tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate exports declined remarkably to $X in 2021. In general, exports continue to indicate a abrupt decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 182%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Rwanda (X tons) was the main destination for ammonium nitrate exports from Kenya, with a 81% share of total exports. Moreover, ammonium nitrate exports to Rwanda exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Uganda (X tons), fivefold.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Rwanda stood at -4.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Uganda (-13.9% per year) and Tanzania (-34.8% per year).

In value terms, Rwanda ($X) remains the key foreign market for ammonium nitrate exports from Kenya, comprising 95% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Tanzania ($X), with a 2.8% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of value to Rwanda stood at -7.9%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Tanzania (-30.8% per year) and Uganda (-34.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average ammonium nitrate export price stood at $X per ton in 2021, with an increase of 10% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a pronounced decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average export price increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Uganda ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Tanzania (+6.1%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Ammonium Nitrate Imports

Imports into Kenya

Ammonium nitrate imports into Kenya soared to X tons in 2021, jumping by 39% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, imports posted a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 681% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate imports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports saw strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 722% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

India (X tons), Egypt (X tons) and France (X tons) were the main suppliers of ammonium nitrate imports to Kenya, together comprising 60% of total imports. These countries were followed by Sweden, Ukraine, Tanzania, China and South Korea, which together accounted for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were recorded for Tanzania (with a CAGR of +75.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ammonium nitrate suppliers to Kenya were India ($X), Egypt ($X) and France ($X), with a combined 57% share of total imports. Tanzania, Ukraine, Sweden, China and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

In terms of the main suppliers, Tanzania, with a CAGR of +60.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average ammonium nitrate import price stood at $X per ton in 2021, jumping by 23% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a pronounced contraction. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while the price for China ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+1.0%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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