Kenya: Avocado Market 2024

Avocado Market Size in Kenya

In 2022, the Kenyan avocado market decreased by -4.2% to $X for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. In general, the total consumption indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +139.9% against 2015 indices. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Avocado Production in Kenya

In value terms, avocado production stood at $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -2.5% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 37% against the previous year. Avocado production peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In 2022, the average yield of avocados in Kenya contracted to X tons per ha, shrinking by -8.7% compared with 2021. Overall, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 22% against the previous year. The avocado yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of avocados were harvested in Kenya; waning by -2.8% against the previous year. In general, the harvested area, however, showed a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the harvested area increased by 60%. The avocado harvested area peaked at X ha in 2021, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Avocado Exports

Exports from Kenya

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of avocados decreased by -8.9% to X tons in 2022. Overall, exports, however, saw a resilient increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 26%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, avocado exports shrank to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $X in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (X tons) was the main destination for avocado exports from Kenya, with a 32% share of total exports. Moreover, avocado exports to the Netherlands exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the United Arab Emirates (X tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by France (X tons), with a 9.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume to the Netherlands amounted to +25.0%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United Arab Emirates (+7.7% per year) and France (-0.3% per year).

In value terms, the Netherlands ($X) remains the key foreign market for avocados exports from Kenya, comprising 41% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by France ($X), with a 12% share of total exports. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates, with a 9.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value to the Netherlands stood at +24.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: France (-0.3% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (+4.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average avocado export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 10% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Turkey ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Spain (+0.3%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Avocado Imports

Imports into Kenya

In 2022, imports of avocados into Kenya soared to X tons, jumping by 115% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a noticeable decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 3,417% against the previous year. Imports peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, avocado imports surged to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 3,704%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Tanzania (X tons) constituted the largest supplier of avocado to Kenya, with a 88% share of total imports. Moreover, avocado imports from Tanzania exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the United Arab Emirates (X tons), sevenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Tanzania stood at -4.9%.

In value terms, Tanzania ($X) and the United Arab Emirates ($X) were the largest avocado suppliers to Kenya.

In terms of the main suppliers, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +71.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review.

Import Prices by Country

The average avocado import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of 5.7% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a slight descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 43% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2016 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while the price for Tanzania totaled $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+5.5%).

Source: IndexBox Platform

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