Kenya: Green Coffee Market 2025

Green Coffee Market Size in Kenya

In 2022, the Kenyan green coffee market increased by 9.4% to $X, rising for the seventh consecutive year after three years of decline. Overall, the total consumption indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +110.0% against 2015 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Green Coffee Production in Kenya

In value terms, green coffee production shrank modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, saw a abrupt shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 51%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

The average yield of coffee (green) in Kenya contracted slightly to X kg per ha in 2022, with a decrease of -3.4% compared with the year before. In general, the yield, however, showed a temperate increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 59%. The green coffee yield peaked at X kg per ha in 2021, and then shrank in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of coffee (green) production in Kenya rose notably to X ha, growing by 5.3% against the year before. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to green coffee production attained the peak figure at X ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Green Coffee Exports

Exports from Kenya

For the fifth year in a row, Kenya recorded growth in overseas shipments of coffee (green), which increased by less than 0.1% to X tons in 2022. Overall, exports showed moderate growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 65% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, green coffee exports dropped to $X in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +74.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 64% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $X in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports by Country

The United States (X tons), Germany (X tons) and South Korea (X tons) were the main destinations of green coffee exports from Kenya, together accounting for 47% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for South Korea (with a CAGR of +29.6%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for green coffee exported from Kenya were the United States ($X), Germany ($X) and South Korea ($X), together comprising 47% of total exports.

South Korea, with a CAGR of +21.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average green coffee export price amounted to $X per ton, reducing by -5.7% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a perceptible curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average export price increased by 22% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to the Netherlands ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Australia (-1.5%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Green Coffee Imports

Imports into Kenya

After two years of growth, purchases abroad of coffee (green) decreased by -19.4% to X tons in 2022. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 166% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2021, and then fell remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, green coffee imports shrank sharply to $X in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a mild decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 164%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2021, and then fell markedly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Rwanda (X tons) constituted the largest supplier of green coffee to Kenya, accounting for a 54% share of total imports. Moreover, green coffee imports from Rwanda exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Uganda (X tons), twofold. Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 8.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Rwanda stood at +11.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Uganda (-5.8% per year) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (+2.1% per year).

In value terms, Rwanda ($X) constituted the largest supplier of coffee (green) to Kenya, comprising 63% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Uganda ($X), with a 19% share of total imports. It was followed by Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value from Rwanda stood at +6.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Uganda (-6.4% per year) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (+2.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average green coffee import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a slight curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Rwanda ($X per ton), while the price for Tanzania ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+2.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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