Kenya: Ethanol Market 2024

Ethanol Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan ethanol market declined slightly to $X in 2022, dropping by -2.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -6.2% against 2019 indices. Ethanol consumption peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Ethanol Production in Kenya

In value terms, ethanol production reduced slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 43%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Ethanol Exports

Exports from Kenya

In 2022, approx. X litres of ethyl alcohol were exported from Kenya; with a decrease of -20.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a sharp downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 66% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X litres in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol exports fell significantly to $X in 2022. In general, exports saw a sharp slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 84%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Tanzania (X litres) was the main destination for ethanol exports from Kenya, accounting for a 59% share of total exports. Moreover, ethanol exports to Tanzania exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Democratic Republic of the Congo (X litres), threefold. Uganda (X litres) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 15% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Tanzania amounted to -12.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic Republic of the Congo (-15.2% per year) and Uganda (-39.4% per year).

In value terms, Tanzania ($X) emerged as the key foreign market for ethyl alcohol exports from Kenya, comprising 45% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X), with a 21% share of total exports. It was followed by Rwanda, with a 17% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Tanzania stood at -16.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic Republic of the Congo (-12.8% per year) and Rwanda (-8.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average ethanol export price stood at $X per litre in 2022, falling by -2.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a pronounced contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 31%. The export price peaked at $X per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Rwanda ($X per litre), while the average price for exports to Tanzania ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Rwanda (+6.5%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced mixed trend patterns.

Ethanol Imports

Imports into Kenya

In 2022, imports of ethyl alcohol into Kenya shrank modestly to X litres, which is down by -2.5% on 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 622% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of X litres. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol imports reduced dramatically to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 471%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Uganda (X litres), Mauritius (X litres) and the United States (X litres) were the main suppliers of ethanol imports to Kenya, with a combined 75% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +6,352.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Uganda ($X), Mauritius ($X) and South Africa ($X) were the largest ethanol suppliers to Kenya, together accounting for 75% of total imports.

Uganda, with a CAGR of +2,042.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average ethanol import price stood at $X per litre in 2022, falling by -12.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a perceptible slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 41%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per litre. From 2021 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the countries with the highest prices were Mauritius ($X per litre) and Tanzania ($X per litre), while the price for the United States ($X per litre) and India ($X per litre) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+0.3%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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