Kenya: Methanol Market 2024

Methanol Market Size in Kenya

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in the Kenyan methanol market, when its value decreased by -3.1% to $X. In general, the total consumption indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +91.8% against 2016 indices. Methanol consumption peaked at $X in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Methanol Exports

Exports from Kenya

In 2022, the amount of methanol (methyl alcohol) exported from Kenya fell rapidly to X tons, waning by -17% against the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 730% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, methanol exports contracted to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 589% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Uganda (X tons) was the main destination for methanol exports from Kenya, accounting for a 59% share of total exports. Moreover, methanol exports to Uganda exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Rwanda (X tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Somalia (X tons), with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume to Uganda stood at +8.6%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Rwanda (-0.9% per year) and Somalia (+51.5% per year).

In value terms, Uganda ($X), Rwanda ($X) and South Sudan ($X) appeared to be the largest markets for methanol exported from Kenya worldwide, with a combined 86% share of total exports. Tanzania, Somalia and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 8.3%.

Somalia, with a CAGR of +13.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average methanol export price amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average export price increased by 82%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Tanzania (+32.1%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Methanol Imports

Imports into Kenya

In 2022, the amount of methanol (methyl alcohol) imported into Kenya was estimated at X tons, with an increase of 6.3% on 2021. Over the period under review, total imports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -5.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 38% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, methanol imports declined to $X in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +6.1% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 42% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at $X in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Imports by Country

Saudi Arabia (X tons), Egypt (X tons) and India (X tons) were the main suppliers of methanol imports to Kenya, together accounting for 88% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +88.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($X) constituted the largest supplier of methanol (methyl alcohol) to Kenya, comprising 58% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($X), with an 18% share of total imports. It was followed by Egypt, with a 7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value from Saudi Arabia stood at +7.8%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: India (+7.9% per year) and Egypt (+49.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average methanol import price amounted to $X per ton, declining by -11.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 29% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while the price for Egypt ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+5.6%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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