Kenya: Paddy Rice Market 2025

Paddy Rice Market Size in Kenya

In 2021, the Kenyan paddy rice market decreased by -7% to $X for the first time since 2017, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Overall, consumption, however, saw a buoyant increase. Paddy rice consumption peaked at $X in 2020, and then contracted in the following year.

Paddy Rice Production in Kenya

In value terms, paddy rice production dropped to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, posted a resilient increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 49% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2020, and then declined in the following year.

The average yield of paddy rice in Kenya totaled X tons per ha in 2021, leveling off at the year before. In general, the yield continues to indicate a temperate increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 62%. Over the period under review, the average paddy rice yield reached the maximum level at X tons per ha in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2021. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2021, the total area harvested in terms of paddy rice production in Kenya dropped to X ha, waning by -5.8% against 2020 figures. Over the period under review, the harvested area showed a mild curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to paddy rice production attained the peak figure at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Paddy Rice Exports

Exports from Kenya

For the fifth year in a row, Kenya recorded decline in shipments abroad of paddy rice, which decreased by -28.9% to X tons in 2021. Over the period under review, exports faced a dramatic slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 782%. The exports peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, paddy rice exports reduced sharply to $X in 2021. In general, exports saw a sharp shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 704%. The exports peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Uganda (X tons) was the main destination for paddy rice exports from Kenya, with a 61% share of total exports. Moreover, paddy rice exports to Uganda exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Tanzania (X tons), twofold. Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 9.8% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Uganda amounted to -29.0%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Tanzania (-19.4% per year) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (-18.0% per year).

In value terms, Uganda ($X) remains the key foreign market for paddy rice exports from Kenya, comprising 67% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($X), with a 23% share of total exports. It was followed by Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Uganda amounted to -17.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Tanzania (-8.5% per year) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (-22.5% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the average paddy rice export price amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 4.8% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, paddy rice export price increased by +58.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2021, the country with the highest price was South Sudan ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Sudan (+31.3%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Paddy Rice Imports

Imports into Kenya

In 2021, purchases abroad of paddy rice increased by 1.8% to X tons, rising for the second consecutive year after five years of decline. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 350%. Imports peaked at X tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, paddy rice imports reached $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 314% against the previous year. Imports peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Tanzania (X tons) was the main supplier of paddy rice to Kenya, accounting for a 98% share of total imports. It was followed by Pakistan (X tons), with a 1% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Tanzania stood at +9.4%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Pakistan (-42.7% per year) and Uganda (-14.0% per year).

In value terms, Tanzania ($X) constituted the largest supplier of paddy rice to Kenya, comprising 90% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Uganda ($X), with a 2.1% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of value from Tanzania amounted to +6.8%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Uganda (+0.6% per year) and Pakistan (-42.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the average paddy rice import price amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 2.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 12% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2019 to 2021, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably country of origin: the country with the highest price was Uganda ($X per ton), while the price for Tanzania ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uganda (+16.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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