Kenya: Crude Oil Market 2025

Crude Oil Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan crude oil market declined dramatically to $X in 2022, falling by -44.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X, and then fell significantly in the following year.

Crude Oil Exports

Exports from Kenya

In 2022, shipments abroad of crude petroleum oil decreased by -42% to X tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Overall, exports, however, showed a strong expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 687% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons, and then declined markedly in the following year.

In value terms, crude oil exports fell sharply to $X in 2022. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 630% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X, and then dropped significantly in the following year.

Exports by Country

Rwanda (X tons) was the main destination for crude oil exports from Kenya, accounting for a 77% share of total exports. Moreover, crude oil exports to Rwanda exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Uganda (X tons), fourfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Rwanda totaled +137.8%.

In value terms, Rwanda ($X) remains the key foreign market for crude petroleum oil exports from Kenya, comprising 68% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Uganda ($X), with a 28% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Rwanda totaled +120.3%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average crude oil export price amounted to $X per ton, dropping by -1.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price faced a deep slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 200% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat for the major overseas markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uganda ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Rwanda amounted to $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Rwanda (-7.4%).

Crude Oil Imports

Imports into Kenya

In 2022, the amount of crude petroleum oil imported into Kenya declined significantly to X tons, reducing by -44.9% on 2021. In general, imports, however, recorded a notable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 872% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons, and then fell markedly in the following year.

In value terms, crude oil imports dropped markedly to $X in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a pronounced contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 872% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (X tons) constituted the largest crude oil supplier to Kenya, accounting for a 73% share of total imports. Moreover, crude oil imports from the United Arab Emirates exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Israel (X tons), threefold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from the United Arab Emirates totaled +1.2%.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($X) constituted the largest supplier of crude petroleum oil to Kenya, comprising 95% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Israel ($X), with a 5% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from the United Arab Emirates stood at -3.5%.

Import Prices by Country

The average crude oil import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while the price for Israel amounted to $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (-4.6%).

Source: IndexBox Platform

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