Kenya: Rice Market 2025

Rice Market Size in Kenya

In 2021, the Kenyan rice market increased by 13% to $X, rising for the fifth consecutive year after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Rice consumption peaked in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Rice Production in Kenya

In value terms, rice production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a prominent increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 50%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2020, and then fell in the following year.

In 2021, the average rice yield in Kenya rose markedly to X tons per ha, surging by 14% against 2020 figures. Overall, the yield saw strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 62%. The rice yield peaked in 2021 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2021, the total area harvested in terms of rice production in Kenya reduced to X ha, waning by -9.6% on the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a slight reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to rice production reached the peak figure at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Rice Exports

Exports from Kenya

In 2021, overseas shipments of rice increased by 10% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a precipitous curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 78% against the previous year. The exports peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, rice exports declined to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a sharp downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 28% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Tanzania (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Rwanda (X tons) were the main destinations of rice exports from Kenya, with a combined 73% share of total exports. Somalia, Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Somalia (with a CAGR of +42.9%), while the other leaders experienced a decline.

In value terms, the largest markets for rice exported from Kenya were Rwanda ($X), Uganda ($X) and Tanzania ($X), with a combined 71% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Somalia, South Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo, which together accounted for a further 18%.

Somalia, with a CAGR of +18.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.

Export Prices by Country

The average rice export price stood at $X per ton in 2021, with a decrease of -12.5% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, rice export price increased by +53.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 22%. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2020, and then fell in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Rwanda ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Burundi (+30.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Rice Imports

Imports into Kenya

In 2021, approx. X tons of rice were imported into Kenya; with an increase of 6.5% on the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 30%. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rice imports skyrocketed to $X in 2021. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Pakistan (X tons), India (X tons) and Tanzania (X tons) were the main suppliers of rice imports to Kenya, together accounting for 87% of total imports. Myanmar, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 9.8%.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were recorded for Myanmar (with a CAGR of +63.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rice suppliers to Kenya were India ($X), Pakistan ($X) and Tanzania ($X), together comprising 87% of total imports.

In terms of the main suppliers, Tanzania, with a CAGR of +70.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the average rice import price amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 8.2% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 11%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while the price for Vietnam ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+5.5%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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