Kenya: Market for Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products 2024

Market Size for Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products in Kenya

In 2021, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in the Kenyan rusks and toasted bread market, when its value decreased by -12.8% to $X. Overall, the total consumption indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption increased by +41.1% against 2018 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X, and then contracted in the following year.

Production of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products in Kenya

In value terms, rusks and toasted bread production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production increased by +33.1% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 43%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X, and then shrank in the following year.

Exports of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products

Exports from Kenya

In 2021, overseas shipments of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products decreased by -71.1% to X tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, exports faced a drastic downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 461%. The exports peaked at X tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rusks and toasted bread exports shrank dramatically to $X in 2021. Overall, exports showed a abrupt decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 175%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Tanzania (X tons) was the main destination for rusks and toasted bread exports from Kenya, accounting for a 40% share of total exports. Moreover, rusks and toasted bread exports to Tanzania exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Rwanda (X tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by the UK (X kg), with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of volume to Tanzania stood at +6.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Rwanda (+6.5% per year) and the UK (+1.8% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for rusks and toasted bread exported from Kenya were the UK ($X), Tanzania ($X) and Rwanda ($X), with a combined 77% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Somalia, the United Arab Emirates, South Sudan and Uganda, which together accounted for a further 4.6%.

South Sudan, with a CAGR of +34.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average rusks and toasted bread export price stood at $X per ton in 2021, picking up by 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price enjoyed a buoyant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the average export price increased by 354%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $X per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Uganda ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Tanzania (+8.6%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products

Imports into Kenya

In 2021, the amount of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products imported into Kenya soared to X tons, rising by 255% against the year before. Overall, imports posted a strong expansion. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rusks and toasted bread imports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports enjoyed a buoyant expansion. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Denmark (X tons), India (X tons) and China (X tons) were the main suppliers of rusks and toasted bread imports to Kenya, with a combined 78% share of total imports. The UK, Pakistan, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Egypt and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +60.1%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Denmark ($X), India ($X) and the UK ($X) were the largest rusks and toasted bread suppliers to Kenya, together accounting for 70% of total imports. China, Pakistan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Italy, the Netherlands and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

Among the main suppliers, China, with a CAGR of +63.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the average rusks and toasted bread import price amounted to $X per ton, falling by -7.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a perceptible curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average import price increased by 79% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2015 to 2021, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($X per ton), while the price for China ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+17.3%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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