Kenya: Sugar Market 2022

Sugar Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan sugar market stood at $X in 2021, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a noticeable curtailment. Sugar consumption peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Sugar Production in Kenya

In value terms, sugar production skyrocketed to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a noticeable descent. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $X in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2021, production failed to regain momentum.

In 2021, the average yield of sugar in Kenya stood at less than X kg per ha, almost unchanged from the previous year. In general, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The sugar harvested area in Kenya was estimated at less than X ha in 2021, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern.

Sugar Exports

Exports from Kenya

In 2021, approx. X tons of sugar were exported from Kenya; with an increase of 40% compared with 2020. Overall, exports recorded a temperate increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 75% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, sugar exports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Rwanda (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Tanzania (X tons) were the main destinations of sugar exports from Kenya, with a combined 91% share of total exports. Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, the UK and South Sudan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 6.1%.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were in Malawi (with a CAGR of +80.8%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Uganda ($X), Rwanda ($X) and Tanzania ($X) were the largest markets for sugar exported from Kenya worldwide, with a combined 88% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Malawi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the UK and South Sudan, which together accounted for a further 8%.

Malawi, with a CAGR of +52.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average sugar export price stood at $X per ton in 2021, increasing by 15% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the average export price increased by 19%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2021, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2021, the country with the highest price was the UK ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Tanzania ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the UK (+11.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Sugar Imports

Imports into Kenya

For the fifth consecutive year, Kenya recorded growth in overseas purchases of sugar, which increased by 1% to X tons in 2021. Over the period under review, imports enjoyed prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 43%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, sugar imports totaled $X in 2021. In general, total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports increased by +69.7% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 41% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2021 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

Brazil (X tons), Egypt (X tons) and Mauritius (X tons) were the main suppliers of sugar imports to Kenya, together accounting for 50% of total imports. Uganda, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Swaziland, the United Arab Emirates, Zimbabwe and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +45.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mauritius ($X), Uganda ($X) and Saudi Arabia ($X) were the largest sugar suppliers to Kenya, with a combined 49% share of total imports. Egypt, Swaziland, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Zimbabwe and India lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +43.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the average sugar import price amounted to $X per ton, approximately reflecting the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a deep contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably country of origin: the country with the highest price was Uganda ($X per ton), while the price for Brazil ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Swaziland (+0.4%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform