MENA: Ammonium Nitrate Market 2024

Ammonium Nitrate Market Size in MENA

In 2021, the MENA's ammonium nitrate market decreased by -6.4% to $X for the first time since 2017, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total consumption indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption increased by +17.8% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $X in 2020, and then shrank in the following year.

Ammonium Nitrate Production in MENA

In value terms, ammonium nitrate production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production increased by +9.6% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the production volume increased by 61%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2020, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Ammonium Nitrate Exports

Exports in MENA

In 2021, ammonium nitrate exports in MENA skyrocketed to X tons, rising by 22% compared with the previous year. Total exports indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports increased by +95.0% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate exports surged to $X in 2021. Total exports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports increased by +61.8% against 2016 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Oman represented the largest exporting country with an export of around X tons, which resulted at 53% of total exports. Saudi Arabia (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Egypt (X tons) and Turkey (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 46% share of total exports.

Oman was also the fastest-growing in terms of the ammonium nitrate exports, with a CAGR of +58.0% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Egypt (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Turkey experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Saudi Arabia (-10.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Oman increased by +52 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($X) remains the largest ammonium nitrate supplier in MENA, comprising 70% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Oman ($X), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by Egypt, with a 7.9% share.

In Saudi Arabia, ammonium nitrate exports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Oman (+53.8% per year) and Egypt (-0.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in MENA amounted to $X per ton, declining by -4.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2021, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.9%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the export price increased by 22%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2017 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($X per ton), while Oman ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia (+18.0%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Ammonium Nitrate Imports

Imports in MENA

In 2021, the amount of ammonium nitrate imported in MENA dropped notably to X tons, waning by -28.8% compared with 2020. Over the period under review, imports saw a abrupt decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 27%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at X tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate imports rose slightly to $X in 2021. Overall, imports showed a deep contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Morocco (X tons) was the key importer of ammonium nitrate, generating 42% of total imports. Saudi Arabia (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 16% share, followed by Israel (9.8%), Turkey (8.1%), Jordan (6.6%) and the United Arab Emirates (6.2%). Oman (X tons) held a minor share of total imports.

Morocco experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of ammonium nitrate. At the same time, Saudi Arabia (+4.3%), the United Arab Emirates (+4.1%), Oman (+4.0%) and Israel (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Saudi Arabia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in MENA, with a CAGR of +4.3% from 2012-2021. Jordan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Turkey (-26.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Oman increased by +25, +11, +6.6, +4.3, +3.9 and +2.5 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Morocco ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported ammonium nitrate in MENA, comprising 41% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Saudi Arabia ($X), with a 17% share of total imports. It was followed by Israel, with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Morocco was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Saudi Arabia (+0.7% per year) and Israel (+1.4% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in MENA stood at $X per ton in 2021, picking up by 45% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Oman ($X per ton) and the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while Morocco ($X per ton) and Turkey ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+1.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform