MENA: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in MENA

The MENA's wheat market expanded significantly to $X in 2022, growing by 7.3% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Wheat Production in MENA

In value terms, wheat production reduced to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 47% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Turkey (X tons), Iran (X tons) and Egypt (X tons), with a combined 69% share of total production. Iraq, Morocco, Algeria and Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Iraq (with a CAGR of +5.5%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average wheat yield dropped to X tons per ha in 2022, approximately equating the previous year's figure. In general, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 17%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the wheat yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the harvested area of wheat in MENA was estimated at X ha, surging by 2.8% on the previous year. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to wheat production reached the peak figure at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in MENA

In 2022, overseas shipments of wheat increased by 50% to X tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, exports saw a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 225% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, wheat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Overall, exports posted a resilient expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 116% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Exports by Country

Turkey was the key exporter of wheat in MENA, with the volume of exports reaching X tons, which was near 53% of total exports in 2022. The United Arab Emirates (X tons) held a 31% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Syrian Arab Republic (11%). Iran (X tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +16.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat supplying countries in MENA were Turkey ($X), the United Arab Emirates ($X) and Syrian Arab Republic ($X), together comprising 97% of total exports.

Syrian Arab Republic, with a CAGR of +20.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in MENA stood at $X per ton in 2022, declining by -17.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the export price increased by 32%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2021, and then shrank dramatically in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while Iran ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+3.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

Imports in MENA

In 2022, the amount of wheat imported in MENA expanded notably to X tons, surging by 8.3% compared with the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 41% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wheat imports soared to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +83.8% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

The purchases of the four major importers of wheat, namely Algeria, Egypt, Turkey and Morocco, represented more than two-thirds of total import. It was distantly followed by Yemen (X tons), comprising a 5.9% share of total imports. The following importers - Saudi Arabia (X tons), Tunisia (X tons), Israel (X tons), Libya (X tons), the United Arab Emirates (X tons), Iran (X tons), Jordan (X tons) and Lebanon (X tons) - together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +9.1%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in MENA were Egypt ($X), Algeria ($X) and Turkey ($X), together accounting for 58% of total imports. Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Jordan and Lebanon lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.

Tunisia, with a CAGR of +12.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in MENA amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 7.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Tunisia ($X per ton), while Yemen ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+3.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform