MERCOSUR: Ethanol Market 2024

Ethanol Market Size in MERCOSUR

The MERCOSUR ethanol market was estimated at $X in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the market value increased by 8.4% against the previous year. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Ethanol Production in MERCOSUR

In value terms, ethanol production totaled $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 7.8%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Ethanol Exports

Exports in MERCOSUR

In 2022, ethanol exports in MERCOSUR soared to X litres, jumping by 24% against the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, showed a mild downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 35%. The volume of export peaked at X litres in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethanol exports soared to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a mild reduction. The level of export peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Brazil prevails in exports structure, finishing at X litres, which was approx. 85% of total exports in 2022. Paraguay (X litres) took a 6.9% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Peru (5.5%).

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to ethanol exports from Brazil stood at -2.2%. At the same time, Paraguay (+38.3%) and Peru (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Paraguay emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in MERCOSUR, with a CAGR of +38.3% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Paraguay and Peru increased by +6.9 and +1.7 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Brazil ($X) remains the largest ethanol supplier in MERCOSUR, comprising 85% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Paraguay ($X), with a 7% share of total exports.

In Brazil, ethanol exports declined by an average annual rate of -2.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Paraguay (+40.6% per year) and Peru (+2.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in MERCOSUR amounted to $X per litre, with an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Paraguay ($X per litre), while Peru ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Paraguay (+1.6%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Ethanol Imports

Imports in MERCOSUR

In 2022, purchases abroad of ethyl alcohol was finally on the rise to reach X litres for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a mild descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 81%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at X litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol imports expanded modestly to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a perceptible decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 82%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Colombia (X litres), Peru (X litres) and Brazil (X litres) represented roughly 94% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Chile (X litres), comprising a 4.6% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Colombia (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ethanol importing markets in MERCOSUR were Brazil ($X), Colombia ($X) and Peru ($X), with a combined 90% share of total imports.

Among the main importing countries, Colombia, with a CAGR of +8.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in MERCOSUR stood at $X per litre in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a perceptible slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure at $X per litre in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Chile ($X per litre), while Peru ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+0.2%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform