MERCOSUR: Nitrogen Market 2024

Nitrogen Market Size in MERCOSUR

The MERCOSUR nitrogen market shrank to $X in 2021, standing approx. at the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2021, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Nitrogen Production in MERCOSUR

In value terms, nitrogen production contracted modestly to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 26%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2021, production failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Exports

Exports in MERCOSUR

In 2021, shipments abroad of nitrogen was finally on the rise to reach X cubic meters for the first time since 2018, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at X cubic meters in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, nitrogen exports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a noticeable contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 101%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2014 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2021, Chile (X cubic meters) represented the largest exporter of nitrogen, generating 37% of total exports. Argentina (X cubic meters) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Uruguay (X cubic meters), Colombia (X cubic meters) and Brazil (X cubic meters). All these countries together held near 55% share of total exports. The following exporters - Ecuador (X cubic meters) and Venezuela (X cubic meters) - together made up 5.9% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were recorded for Uruguay (with a CAGR of +58.3%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest nitrogen supplying countries in MERCOSUR were Brazil ($X), Argentina ($X) and Chile ($X), with a combined 56% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, which together accounted for a further 38%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Uruguay, with a CAGR of +41.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in MERCOSUR amounted to $X per cubic meter, picking up by 31% against the previous year. Export price indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, nitrogen export price increased by +90.7% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 67% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Brazil ($X per cubic meter), while Chile ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+13.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Nitrogen Imports

Imports in MERCOSUR

In 2021, purchases abroad of nitrogen increased by 17% to X cubic meters for the first time since 2016, thus ending a four-year declining trend. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a pronounced shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 39%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X cubic meters in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen imports surged to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 41%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Chile dominates imports structure, resulting at X cubic meters, which was near 80% of total imports in 2021. It was distantly followed by Uruguay (X cubic meters), achieving a 4.8% share of total imports. Paraguay (X cubic meters), Suriname (X cubic meters) and Brazil (X cubic meters) held a minor share of total imports.

Imports into Chile decreased at an average annual rate of -1.0% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Suriname (+76.8%) and Paraguay (+12.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Suriname emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in MERCOSUR, with a CAGR of +76.8% from 2012-2021. By contrast, Brazil (-4.9%) and Uruguay (-22.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Chile, Suriname and Paraguay increased by +18, +4 and +3.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Chile ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported nitrogen in MERCOSUR, comprising 27% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Suriname ($X), with a 9.3% share of total imports. It was followed by Brazil, with a 9.1% share.

In Chile, nitrogen imports contracted by an average annual rate of -5.0% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Suriname (+41.7% per year) and Brazil (-4.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the import price in MERCOSUR amounted to $X per cubic meter, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the last nine-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.8%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the import price increased by 25%. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Brazil ($X per cubic meter), while Chile ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uruguay (+2.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform