Mexico: Tobacco Market 2025

Tobacco Market Size in Mexico

In 2021, after five years of decline, there was growth in the Mexican tobacco market, when its value increased by 1.7% to $X. Over the period under review, consumption saw a abrupt contraction. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Tobacco Production in Mexico

In value terms, tobacco production stood at $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 39% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2021, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Tobacco Exports

Exports from Mexico

For the fourth year in a row, Mexico recorded growth in overseas shipments of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff), which increased by 27% to X tons in 2021. Overall, exports showed a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 120%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, tobacco exports soared to $X in 2021. In general, total exports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports increased by +58.9% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 88%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2014 to 2021, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Honduras (X tons) was the main destination for tobacco exports from Mexico, with a 57% share of total exports. Moreover, tobacco exports to Honduras exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the United States (X tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Canada (X tons), with a 19% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of volume to Honduras totaled +127.8%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+10.5% per year) and Canada (+26.1% per year).

In value terms, Honduras ($X), the United States ($X) and Canada ($X) were the largest markets for tobacco exported from Mexico worldwide, together comprising 97% of total exports.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Honduras, with a CAGR of +89.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the average tobacco export price amounted to $X per ton, waning by -8.3% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a abrupt slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average export price increased by 37%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2016 to 2021, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Honduras ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Brazil (+8.3%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Tobacco Imports

Imports into Mexico

In 2021, overseas purchases of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) increased by 128% to X tons, rising for the third year in a row after five years of decline. Overall, imports saw a perceptible expansion. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, tobacco imports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports showed a strong increase. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2021, the Netherlands (X tons) constituted the largest supplier of tobacco to Mexico, accounting for a 30% share of total imports. Moreover, tobacco imports from the Netherlands exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Romania (X tons), twofold. The United States (X tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from the Netherlands amounted to -8.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Romania (+1,464.0% per year) and the United States (+2.4% per year).

In value terms, the Netherlands ($X), the United States ($X) and Romania ($X) appeared to be the largest tobacco suppliers to Mexico, with a combined 54% share of total imports.

Romania, with a CAGR of +611.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average tobacco import price stood at $X per ton in 2021, declining by -8.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 79% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($X per ton), while the price for Brazil ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+14.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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