Middle East: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in the Middle East

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in the Middle Eastern wheat market, when its value increased by 1.5% to $X. In general, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Production in the Middle East

In value terms, wheat production amounted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.2% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 39% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Turkey (X tons), Iran (X tons) and Iraq (X tons), with a combined 91% share of total production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Iraq (with a CAGR of +5.5%), while production for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the production figures.

In 2022, the average wheat yield in the Middle East expanded notably to X tons per ha, growing by 6.1% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the yield increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the wheat yield reached the peak level at X tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the wheat harvested area in the Middle East rose to X ha, with an increase of 2.3% against 2021 figures. Overall, the harvested area, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 5%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to wheat production reached the peak figure at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in the Middle East

In 2022, shipments abroad of wheat increased by 50% to X tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, exports showed buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 215% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, wheat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. In general, exports recorded strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 110%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Turkey was the major exporting country with an export of around X tons, which amounted to 53% of total exports. The United Arab Emirates (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Syrian Arab Republic (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 41% share of total exports. Iran (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +16.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($X), the United Arab Emirates ($X) and Syrian Arab Republic ($X) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 97% of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, Syrian Arab Republic, with a CAGR of +20.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in the Middle East amounted to $X per ton, with a decrease of -17.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the export price increased by 32% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2021, and then declined significantly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while Iran ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+3.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

Imports in the Middle East

In 2022, approx. X tons of wheat were imported in the Middle East; falling by -1.6% against the year before. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 23%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat imports rose remarkably to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 22%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Turkey was the key importer of wheat in the Middle East, with the volume of imports recording X tons, which was near 40% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Yemen (X tons), Saudi Arabia (X tons), Israel (X tons), the United Arab Emirates (X tons), Iran (X tons) and Jordan (X tons), together generating a 49% share of total imports.

Turkey was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wheat imports, with a CAGR of +9.1% from 2012 to 2022. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Israel experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. the United Arab Emirates (-3.4%) and Iran (-14.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Turkey (+25 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of the United Arab Emirates (-2 p.p.) and Iran (-17.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported wheat in the Middle East, comprising 48% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Yemen ($X), with an 11% share of total imports. It was followed by Saudi Arabia, with a 9.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Turkey amounted to +11.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Yemen (-1.6% per year) and Saudi Arabia (-1.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in the Middle East amounted to $X per ton, growing by 9.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 20%. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Turkey ($X per ton), while Yemen ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+2.2%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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