Nigeria: Wheat Market 2024

Wheat Market Size in Nigeria

In 2022, the Nigerien wheat market increased by 3.9% to $X, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed strong growth. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Wheat Production in Nigeria

In value terms, wheat production contracted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a abrupt setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 45%. Wheat production peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In 2022, the average yield of wheat in Nigeria dropped to X tons per ha, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021. Over the period under review, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the yield increased by 68% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average wheat yield reached the maximum level at X tons per ha in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the harvested area of wheat in Nigeria fell notably to X ha, waning by -18.8% on the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area continues to indicate a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 60%. The wheat harvested area peaked at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Wheat Exports

Exports from Nigeria

After seven years of decline, shipments abroad of wheat increased by 8.1% to X tons in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a perceptible downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 238% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat exports expanded remarkably to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Belgium (X tons) was the main destination for wheat exports from Nigeria, accounting for a 94% share of total exports. Moreover, wheat exports to Belgium exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the Netherlands (X tons), more than tenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Belgium stood at +27.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (-25.9% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (-54.6% per year).

In value terms, Belgium ($X) remains the key foreign market for wheat exports from Nigeria, comprising 94% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($X), with a 5.4% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Belgium stood at +28.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (-26.3% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (-59.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average wheat export price amounted to $X per ton, reducing by -2% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 101%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Qatar (+42.6%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced mixed trend patterns.

Wheat Imports

Imports into Nigeria

In 2022, approx. X tons of wheat were imported into Nigeria; which is down by -7.5% compared with 2021 figures. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a pronounced expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 93%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports totaled $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded strong growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 70% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

Ukraine (X tons), Latvia (X tons) and Canada (X tons) were the main suppliers of wheat imports to Nigeria, with a combined 86% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Latvia (with a CAGR of +74.1%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat suppliers to Nigeria were Algeria ($X), Ukraine ($X) and the United States ($X), with a combined 53% share of total imports. Latvia, Canada, Bahrain, Cyprus and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

Among the main suppliers, Latvia, with a CAGR of +67.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average wheat import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, picking up by 20% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat import price increased by +127.1% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 45%. The import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($X per ton), while the price for Latvia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+42.4%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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