Russian Federation: Methanol Market 2024

Methanol Market Size in the Russian Federation

The Russian methanol market dropped slightly to $X in 2022, reducing by -3.7% against the previous year. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Methanol consumption peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Methanol Production in the Russian Federation

In value terms, methanol production declined to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a mild decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 79% against the previous year. Methanol production peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Methanol Exports

Exports from the Russian Federation

In 2022, overseas shipments of methanol (methyl alcohol) decreased by -1.2% to X tons, falling for the third consecutive year after four years of growth. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -5.5% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The exports peaked at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, methanol exports fell markedly to $X in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +33.6% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 81%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2021, and then contracted sharply in the following year.

Exports by Country

Finland (X tons), Poland (X tons) and Slovakia (X tons) were the main destinations of methanol exports from Russia, together comprising 64% of total exports. Romania, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus and Estonia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +261.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Finland ($X), Poland ($X) and Slovakia ($X) constituted the largest markets for methanol exported from Russia worldwide, with a combined 64% share of total exports. Romania, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Belarus and Estonia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Among the main countries of destination, Belarus, with a CAGR of +157.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average methanol export price amounted to $X per ton, waning by -19.1% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a mild curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 71%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat for the major export markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the highest price was recorded for prices to Lithuania ($X per ton) and Romania ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Belarus ($X per ton) and the Netherlands ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Turkey (+1.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Methanol Imports

Imports into the Russian Federation

Methanol imports into Russia surged to X tons in 2021, growing by 110% on 2020. Overall, imports showed significant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 33,804%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, methanol imports soared to $X in 2021. In general, imports showed significant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 36,777%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X. From 2020 to 2021, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Belarus (X tons) was the main methanol supplier to Russia, with a approx. 99.9% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Belarus stood at +34.5%.

In value terms, Belarus ($X) constituted the largest supplier of methanol (methyl alcohol) to Russia.

From 2013 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Belarus totaled +51.3%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the average methanol import price amounted to $X per ton, growing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price enjoyed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 314% against the previous year. The import price peaked in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Belarus.

From 2013 to 2021, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Belarus amounted to +12.5% per year.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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