SADC: Almond Market 2024

Almond Market Size in SADC

The SADC almond market skyrocketed to $X in 2021, increasing by 15% against the previous year. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Almond Production in SADC

In value terms, almond production rose notably to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 31%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2020 to 2021, production growth remained at a lower figure.

Swaziland (X tons) remains the largest almond producing country in SADC, accounting for 70% of total volume. Moreover, almond production in Swaziland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Mozambique (X tons), fourfold. Tanzania (X tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.9% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Swaziland was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mozambique (+2.0% per year) and Tanzania (+18.5% per year).

In 2021, the average almond yield in SADC totaled X tons per ha, with an increase of 4.6% on the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the yield increased by 15%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2019 to 2021, the growth of the almond yield remained at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2021, the almond harvested area in SADC shrank modestly to X ha, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a slight slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 1.3% against the previous year. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Almond Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2021, overseas shipments of almonds decreased by -40.3% to X tons, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, exports, however, recorded a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 115% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons. From 2019 to 2021, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, almond exports fell dramatically to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 86% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X in 2020, and then declined significantly in the following year.

Exports by Country

Mozambique represented the largest exporter of almonds in SADC, with the volume of exports accounting for X tons, which was near 67% of total exports in 2021. South Africa (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Angola (X tons) and Tanzania (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 32% share of total exports.

Exports from Mozambique increased at an average annual rate of +23.9% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Angola (+800.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Angola emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +800.5% from 2012-2021. South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Tanzania (-4.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Mozambique and Angola increased by +38 and +13 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, the largest almond supplying countries in SADC were Mozambique ($X), South Africa ($X) and Tanzania ($X), together accounting for 99% of total exports. Angola lagged somewhat behind, comprising a further 0.8%.

Angola, with a CAGR of +498.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Overall, the export price enjoyed measured growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 87%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs in 2021 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2021, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Angola ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+17.4%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Almond Imports

Imports in SADC

Almond imports declined markedly to X tons in 2021, shrinking by -23.8% against 2020 figures. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 98%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at X tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, almond imports shrank remarkably to $X in 2021. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 117%. The level of import peaked at $X in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2021, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

South Africa was the key importer of almonds in SADC, with the volume of imports amounting to X tons, which was near 77% of total imports in 2021. It was distantly followed by Tanzania (X tons), making up a 10% share of total imports. The following importers - Seychelles (X tons) and Botswana (X tons) - together made up 7.3% of total imports.

South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of almonds. At the same time, Seychelles (+36.6%), Tanzania (+11.2%) and Botswana (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Seychelles emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +36.6% from 2012-2021. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Tanzania and Seychelles increased by +6.2 and +3.9 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported almonds in SADC, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Tanzania ($X), with a 9.4% share of total imports. It was followed by Seychelles, with an 8.8% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa stood at -2.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tanzania (+34.1% per year) and Seychelles (+36.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, increasing by 8.4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 37% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, the country with the highest price was Seychelles ($X per ton), while South Africa ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+20.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform