SADC: Ammonium Nitrate Market 2024

Ammonium Nitrate Market Size in SADC

In 2021, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in the SADC ammonium nitrate market, when its value decreased by -30% to $X. The total consumption indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X, and then fell notably in the following year.

Ammonium Nitrate Production in SADC

In value terms, ammonium nitrate production totaled $X in 2021 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 17% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2021, production growth remained at a lower figure.

Ammonium Nitrate Exports

Exports in SADC

Ammonium nitrate exports surged to X tons in 2021, with an increase of 20% against the year before. Total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports decreased by -2.8% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate exports skyrocketed to $X in 2021. Total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in exports structure, finishing at X tons, which was approx. 91% of total exports in 2021. Tanzania (X tons) and Namibia (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to ammonium nitrate exports from South Africa stood at +4.8%. At the same time, Namibia (+20.8%) and Tanzania (+16.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Namibia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +20.8% from 2012-2021. From 2012 to 2021, the share of South Africa and Tanzania increased by +8.8 and +2.8 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest ammonium nitrate supplier in SADC, comprising 86% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($X), with a 9% share of total exports.

In South Africa, ammonium nitrate exports increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012-2021. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Tanzania (+17.5% per year) and Namibia (+14.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, picking up by 31% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while South Africa ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+0.8%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Ammonium Nitrate Imports

Imports in SADC

After five years of growth, overseas purchases of ammonium nitrate decreased by -40.6% to X tons in 2021. Overall, imports, however, posted a temperate expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 52%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons, and then declined markedly in the following year.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate imports expanded to $X in 2021. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 37%. The level of import peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Zambia (X tons), Tanzania (X tons), Mozambique (X tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), Botswana (X tons) and Namibia (X tons) represented the main importer of ammonium nitrate in SADC, committing 90% of total import. Zimbabwe (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Mozambique (with a CAGR of +39.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ammonium nitrate importing markets in SADC were Zambia ($X), Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X) and Mozambique ($X), with a combined 61% share of total imports.

Mozambique, with a CAGR of +26.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the import price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, rising by 72% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a perceptible contraction. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton), while Zimbabwe ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zambia (+0.3%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform