SADC: Avocado Market 2024

Avocado Market Size in SADC

The SADC avocado market dropped modestly to $X in 2022, shrinking by -3.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Avocado Production in SADC

In value terms, avocado production dropped modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Malawi (X tons), South Africa (X tons) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), together accounting for 80% of total production. Madagascar, Tanzania and Zimbabwe lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Zimbabwe (with a CAGR of +22.0%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average avocado yield totaled X tons per ha in 2022, increasing by 4.3% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the yield showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 18% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the avocado yield remained at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the avocado harvested area in SADC reached X ha, approximately mirroring the previous year. In general, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 8.5%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of X ha. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the avocado harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Avocado Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, shipments abroad of avocados increased by 31% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +50.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 102% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, avocado exports rose markedly to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports enjoyed a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 86%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

In 2022, South Africa (X tons) was the largest exporter of avocados, comprising 67% of total exports. Tanzania (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 22% share, followed by Zimbabwe (8.3%). Mozambique (X tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Mozambique (+410.2%), Zimbabwe (+45.8%) and Tanzania (+38.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Mozambique emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +410.2% from 2012-2022. While the share of Tanzania (+21 p.p.), Zimbabwe (+7.9 p.p.) and Mozambique (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of South Africa (-30.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest avocado supplier in SADC, comprising 82% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($X), with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by Zimbabwe, with a 1.9% share.

In South Africa, avocado exports increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Tanzania (+47.9% per year) and Zimbabwe (+31.5% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, with a decrease of -14% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the export price increased by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Zimbabwe ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+7.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Avocado Imports

Imports in SADC

For the third consecutive year, SADC recorded growth in overseas purchases of avocados, which increased by 9.6% to X tons in 2022. In general, imports saw a strong expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, avocado imports dropped rapidly to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a tangible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -10.4% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

South Africa represented the largest importing country with an import of about X tons, which reached 71% of total imports. Botswana (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Namibia (X tons). All these countries together took approx. 22% share of total imports. The following importers - Mauritius (X tons) and Tanzania (X tons) - each recorded a 3.4% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to avocado imports into South Africa stood at +9.9%. At the same time, Tanzania (+58.8%), Mauritius (+19.2%), Botswana (+10.6%) and Namibia (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +58.8% from 2012-2022. While the share of South Africa (+5.1 p.p.) and Botswana (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Namibia (-9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported avocados in SADC, comprising 51% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Namibia ($X), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Botswana, with a 15% share.

In South Africa, avocado imports contracted by an average annual rate of -1.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Namibia (+7.5% per year) and Botswana (+13.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, dropping by -30.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a abrupt decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 51% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2018 to 2022, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mauritius ($X per ton), while Tanzania ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mauritius (+5.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform