SADC: Green Coffee Market 2024

Green Coffee Market Size in SADC

In 2022, the SADC green coffee market increased by 5.8% to $X, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Green Coffee Production in SADC

In value terms, green coffee production reduced to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a noticeable decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Tanzania (X tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons) and Madagascar (X tons), together comprising 85% of total production. Angola, Malawi and Zambia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malawi (with a CAGR of +5.8%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the average yield of coffee (green) in SADC rose slightly to X kg per ha, with an increase of 3.8% compared with the year before. Overall, the yield, however, continues to indicate a noticeable decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the yield increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the green coffee yield hit record highs at X kg per ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The green coffee harvested area dropped to X ha in 2022, with a decrease of -4.2% against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the harvested area increased by 27%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to green coffee production attained the peak figure at X ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Green Coffee Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas shipments of coffee (green), when their volume decreased by -17% to X tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at X tons in 2021, and then reduced notably in the following year.

In value terms, green coffee exports declined slightly to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2022, Tanzania (X tons) was the largest exporter of coffee (green), generating 74% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), mixing up a 16% share of total exports. The following exporters - Zambia (X tons) and Madagascar (X tons) - each accounted for a 7.3% share of total exports.

Tanzania experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of coffee (green). At the same time, Zambia (+22.1%) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (+10.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Zambia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +22.1% from 2012-2022. Madagascar experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Democratic Republic of the Congo (+9.1 p.p.) and Zambia (+3.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Tanzania saw its share reduced by -8.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Tanzania ($X) remains the largest green coffee supplier in SADC, comprising 75% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X), with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by Zambia, with a 4.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Tanzania was relatively modest. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic Republic of the Congo (+7.5% per year) and Zambia (+18.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, growing by 20% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a slight reduction. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Zambia ($X per ton), while Madagascar ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (-1.5%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Green Coffee Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2022, imports of coffee (green) in SADC reduced dramatically to X tons, dropping by -15.4% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, imports showed a perceptible contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, green coffee imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a slight decline. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

South Africa dominates imports structure, accounting for X tons, which was approx. 88% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Tanzania (X tons), creating a 5.4% share of total imports. The following importers - Namibia (X tons), Swaziland (X tons) and Seychelles (X tons) - each resulted at a 5.2% share of total imports.

South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of coffee (green). At the same time, Seychelles (+60.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Seychelles emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +60.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Namibia (-3.2%), Swaziland (-6.8%) and Tanzania (-17.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of South Africa and Seychelles increased by +21 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported coffee (green) in SADC, comprising 91% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Namibia ($X), with a 2.5% share of total imports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 2.4% share.

In South Africa, green coffee imports expanded at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Namibia (-0.3% per year) and Tanzania (-22.6% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 53% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Namibia ($X per ton), while Tanzania ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Swaziland (+4.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform