SADC: Durum Wheat Market 2025

Durum Wheat Market Size in SADC

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in the SADC durum wheat market, when its value decreased by -14.9% to $X. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Durum Wheat Production in SADC

In value terms, durum wheat production totaled $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production recorded a pronounced curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 63%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

South Africa (X tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of durum wheat production, accounting for 78% of total volume. Moreover, durum wheat production in South Africa exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Zimbabwe (X tons), eightfold. Zambia (X tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in South Africa amounted to +1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Zimbabwe (+17.8% per year) and Zambia (-2.4% per year).

In 2022, the average durum wheat yield in SADC shrank to X tons per ha, approximately mirroring the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 38% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then shrank in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The durum wheat harvested area reduced slightly to X ha in 2022, dropping by -3.8% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the harvested area increased by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to durum wheat production reached the peak figure at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Durum Wheat Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, overseas shipments of durum wheat increased by 76% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. Over the period under review, exports posted buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 312% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, durum wheat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Overall, exports continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 270%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the main exporter of durum wheat in SADC, with the volume of exports reaching X tons, which was near 51% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Mozambique (X tons), Swaziland (X tons) and Mauritius (X tons), together comprising a 47% share of total exports.

South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of durum wheat. At the same time, Swaziland (+75.8%), Mauritius (+22.2%) and Mozambique (+19.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Swaziland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +75.8% from 2012-2022. While the share of Mozambique (+16 p.p.), Swaziland (+14 p.p.) and Mauritius (+7.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of South Africa (-38 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, the largest durum wheat supplying countries in SADC were South Africa ($X), Mozambique ($X) and Mauritius ($X), together accounting for 92% of total exports. These countries were followed by Swaziland, which accounted for a further 6.6%.

Swaziland, with a CAGR of +48.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 2.6% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 29%. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mozambique ($X per ton), while Swaziland ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+4.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Durum Wheat Imports

Imports in SADC

After three years of growth, purchases abroad of durum wheat decreased by -27.2% to X tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, enjoyed a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 144%. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2021, and then reduced sharply in the following year.

In value terms, durum wheat imports contracted remarkably to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when imports increased by 109% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X in 2021, and then declined dramatically in the following year.

Imports by Country

Democratic Republic of the Congo represented the main importing country with an import of around X tons, which accounted for 43% of total imports. Zimbabwe (X tons) held a 22% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Madagascar (20%) and Malawi (10%). Mozambique (X tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +44.5%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Zimbabwe ($X), Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X) and Madagascar ($X) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 85% share of total imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, Zimbabwe, with a CAGR of +49.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, falling by -12.8% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the import price increased by 67%. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Zimbabwe ($X per ton), while Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zimbabwe (+4.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform