SADC: Ethylene Market 2024

Ethylene Market Size in SADC

The SADC ethylene market reduced to $X in 2021, dropping by -5.8% against the previous year. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X. From 2017 to 2021, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Ethylene Production in SADC

In value terms, ethylene production contracted to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 21%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2017 to 2021, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Ethylene Exports

Exports in SADC

Ethylene exports contracted remarkably to X tons in 2021, which is down by -68.5% on 2020. Over the period under review, exports saw a mild decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 1,104% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ethylene exports dropped markedly to $X in 2021. Overall, exports, however, posted a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 1,288% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X, and then reduced markedly in the following year.

Exports by Country

Mauritius represented the main exporter of ethylene in SADC, with the volume of exports recording X tons, which was near 68% of total exports in 2021. It was distantly followed by South Africa (X tons), making up a 32% share of total exports.

Exports from Mauritius decreased at an average annual rate of -2.5% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, South Africa (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Africa emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +2.0% from 2012-2021. While the share of South Africa (+8.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2021, the share of Mauritius (-7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest ethylene supplier in SADC, comprising 68% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mauritius ($X), with a 32% share of total exports.

In South Africa, ethylene exports increased at an average annual rate of +14.9% over the period from 2012-2021.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, increasing by 17% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the export price increased by 238%. The level of export peaked in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Mauritius amounted to $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+12.6%).

Ethylene Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2021, overseas purchases of ethylene decreased by -5.6% to X tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a two-year rising trend. In general, imports recorded a drastic downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 106% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethylene imports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports saw a abrupt shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 134%. The level of import peaked at $X in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Zambia prevails in imports structure, amounting to X tons, which was near 73% of total imports in 2021. Tanzania (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Angola (X tons). All these countries together held near 17% share of total imports. The following importers - South Africa (X tons) and Comoros (X tons) - together made up 5.1% of total imports.

Zambia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the ethylene imports, with a CAGR of +23.5% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, South Africa (+5.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Comoros experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Tanzania (-9.8%) and Angola (-26.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Zambia, Comoros and South Africa increased by +67, +2.4 and +1.7 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Zambia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported ethylene in SADC, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by South Africa ($X), with a 9% share of total imports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 7.8% share.

In Zambia, ethylene imports expanded at an average annual rate of +28.9% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Africa (-9.0% per year) and Tanzania (-4.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, picking up by 30% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a pronounced contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 36% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2021, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Comoros ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+5.9%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform