SADC: Non-Wheat Groats Market 2024

Non-Wheat Groats Market Size in SADC

In 2021, the SADC non-wheat groats market increased by 2% to $X, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a perceptible descent. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Non-Wheat Groats Production in SADC

In value terms, non-wheat groats production declined modestly to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a noticeable reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 18%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, production remained at a lower figure.

Non-Wheat Groats Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2021, shipments abroad of groats and meal of cereals (excluding wheat) decreased by -27.9% to X tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 62%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons, and then reduced markedly in the following year.

In value terms, non-wheat groats exports dropped significantly to $X in 2021. Total exports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports increased by +107.5% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 65%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X, and then contracted sharply in the following year.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in exports structure, finishing at X tons, which was near 95% of total exports in 2021. The following exporters - Botswana (X tons) and Tanzania (X tons) - each recorded a 3.3% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to non-wheat groats exports from South Africa stood at +8.1%. At the same time, Tanzania (+19.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +19.1% from 2012-2021. By contrast, Botswana (-3.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of South Africa (+4.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2021, the share of Botswana (-2.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest non-wheat groats supplier in SADC, comprising 96% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($X), with a 1.4% share of total exports.

In South Africa, non-wheat groats exports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tanzania (+12.4% per year) and Botswana (-5.1% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, with an increase of 12% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a pronounced setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the export price increased by 13%. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Botswana ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Botswana (-2.2%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Non-Wheat Groats Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2021, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of groats and meal of cereals (excluding wheat), when their volume decreased by -21.9% to X tons. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate pronounced growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 252%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.

In value terms, non-wheat groats imports declined dramatically to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 230% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X, and then declined notably in the following year.

Imports by Country

Democratic Republic of the Congo represented the largest importing country with an import of around X tons, which amounted to 54% of total imports. Zimbabwe (X tons) took a 26% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Angola (7.2%). South Africa (X tons), Malawi (X tons), Lesotho (X tons) and Mozambique (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to non-wheat groats imports into Democratic Republic of the Congo stood at +20.5%. At the same time, Malawi (+73.3%), Zimbabwe (+20.1%) and Mozambique (+19.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Malawi emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +73.3% from 2012-2021. By contrast, South Africa (-5.7%), Angola (-7.2%) and Lesotho (-22.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe and Malawi increased by +38, +18 and +2.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported groats and meal of cereals (excluding wheat) in SADC, comprising 52% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Zimbabwe ($X), with a 24% share of total imports. It was followed by Angola, with an 11% share.

In Democratic Republic of the Congo, non-wheat groats imports expanded at an average annual rate of +18.0% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Zimbabwe (+19.0% per year) and Angola (-12.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, picking up by 6.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a pronounced slump. Over the period under review, import prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Angola ($X per ton), while Malawi ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zimbabwe (-0.9%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform