SADC: Hydrogen Market 2024

Hydrogen Market Size in SADC

The SADC hydrogen market reduced modestly to $X in 2022, dropping by -2% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Hydrogen Production in SADC

In value terms, hydrogen production fell slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Hydrogen Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, the amount of hydrogen exported in SADC rose remarkably to X cubic meters, picking up by 15% on the previous year. Over the period under review, exports, however, faced a drastic downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 4,739%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X cubic meters. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, hydrogen exports soared to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, showed a abrupt descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 6,760%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Zambia (X cubic meters) and South Africa (X cubic meters) dominates exports structure, together comprising 92% of total exports. The following exporters - Botswana (X cubic meters), Tanzania (X cubic meters) and Zimbabwe (X cubic meters) - together made up 7.7% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Zambia (with a CAGR of +32.0%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline in the exports figures.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) emerged as the largest hydrogen supplier in SADC, comprising 59% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Zambia ($X), with a 27% share of total exports. It was followed by Zimbabwe, with a 5.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa stood at -14.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Zambia (+44.4% per year) and Zimbabwe (-15.5% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per cubic meter in 2022, with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the export price increased by 42% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per cubic meter in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Zimbabwe ($X per cubic meter), while Zambia ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Botswana (+22.2%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Hydrogen Imports

Imports in SADC

For the fourth year in a row, SADC recorded growth in purchases abroad of hydrogen, which increased by 5.8% to X cubic meters in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a deep slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 196% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of X cubic meters. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, hydrogen imports rose modestly to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw a abrupt descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 224% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Angola (X cubic meters) was the key importer of hydrogen, constituting 66% of total imports. Mozambique (X cubic meters) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Africa (8%). The following importers - Botswana (X cubic meters), Mauritius (X cubic meters), Tanzania (X cubic meters) and Namibia (X cubic meters) - together made up 9.9% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to hydrogen imports into Angola stood at -6.0%. At the same time, Mozambique (+21.6%) and Mauritius (+18.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Mozambique emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +21.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Botswana (-3.6%), Namibia (-7.0%), South Africa (-7.1%) and Tanzania (-10.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Mozambique (+9.7 p.p.) and Mauritius (+2.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of South Africa (-2.1 p.p.) and Angola (-7.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Angola ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported hydrogen in SADC, comprising 53% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mozambique ($X), with a 12% share of total imports. It was followed by South Africa, with a 6.1% share.

In Angola, hydrogen imports contracted by an average annual rate of -11.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mozambique (+21.2% per year) and South Africa (-17.4% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per cubic meter in 2022, declining by -2.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 22%. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $X per cubic meter in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per cubic meter), while Namibia ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+5.5%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform