SADC: Oat Market 2025

Oat Market Size in SADC

The SADC oat market fell dramatically to $X in 2022, declining by -20.6% against the previous year. In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Oat Production in SADC

In value terms, oat production soared to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 190% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $X in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

South Africa (X tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of oat production, accounting for 98% of total volume.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in South Africa totaled +1.1%.

The average oat yield rose markedly to X tons per ha in 2022, growing by 5.3% against the year before. The yield indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, oat yield decreased by -6.4% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 167%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the oat yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of oats were harvested in SADC; with a decrease of -13.7% compared with the previous year. In general, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 76%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Oat Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, oat exports in SADC fell remarkably to X tons, reducing by -24.3% against 2021. Total exports indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 55% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2021, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, oat exports reduced dramatically to $X in 2022. Overall, exports, however, posted a perceptible increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 65%. The level of export peaked at $X in 2021, and then shrank sharply in the following year.

Exports by Country

The shipments of the one major exporters of oats, namely South Africa, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

South Africa was also the fastest-growing in terms of the oats exports, with a CAGR of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) also remains the largest oat supplier in SADC.

In South Africa, oat exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, falling by -21.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the export price increased by 39% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2017 to 2022, the export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for South Africa.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for South Africa amounted to -0.5% per year.

Oat Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2022, purchases abroad of oats decreased by -91.3% to X tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. Overall, imports recorded a slight slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 477% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, oat imports shrank rapidly to $X in 2022. In general, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 125% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Namibia (X tons) was the key importer of oats, comprising 48% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Zimbabwe (X tons), Lesotho (X tons), Botswana (X tons), South Africa (X tons) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), together creating a 42% share of total imports. Mauritius (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Namibia increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Democratic Republic of the Congo (+66.1%), Zimbabwe (+16.3%) and Botswana (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Democratic Republic of the Congo emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +66.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Mauritius (-3.6%), South Africa (-9.4%) and Lesotho (-12.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Namibia (+15 p.p.), Zimbabwe (+8.7 p.p.), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+6.1 p.p.) and Botswana (+3.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while South Africa and Lesotho saw its share reduced by -9.4% and -22.7% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Namibia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported oats in SADC, comprising 59% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Botswana ($X), with a 14% share of total imports. It was followed by Zimbabwe, with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Namibia was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Botswana (+8.9% per year) and Zimbabwe (+11.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, growing by 266% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Botswana ($X per ton), while South Africa ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lesotho (+6.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform