SADC: Palm Kernel Oil Market 2024

Palm Kernel Oil Market Size in SADC

In 2022, the SADC palm kernel oil market decreased by -6.3% to $X for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a noticeable contraction. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Palm Kernel Oil Production in SADC

In value terms, palm kernel oil production rose remarkably to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a abrupt contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 115%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Palm Kernel Oil Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, the amount of palm kernel and babassu oil exported in SADC contracted modestly to X tons, which is down by -3.2% on 2021. In general, exports, however, saw modest growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, palm kernel oil exports expanded modestly to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +116.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 113%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the key exporter of palm kernel and babassu oil in SADC, with the volume of exports finishing at X tons, which was approx. 65% of total exports in 2022. Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Tanzania (X tons). All these countries together took near 31% share of total exports. Mozambique (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to palm kernel oil exports from South Africa stood at +3.3%. At the same time, Democratic Republic of the Congo (+15.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Democratic Republic of the Congo emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +15.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Tanzania (-5.1%) and Mozambique (-14.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Africa increased by +15 and +10 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest palm kernel oil supplier in SADC, comprising 74% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in South Africa totaled +7.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic Republic of the Congo (+11.0% per year) and Tanzania (-9.1% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 5.3% against the previous year. Export price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm kernel oil export price increased by +119.0% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the export price increased by 35%. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mozambique ($X per ton), while Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique (+6.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Palm Kernel Oil Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2022, supplies from abroad of palm kernel and babassu oil decreased by -21.1% to X tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. Over the period under review, imports saw a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 12%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, palm kernel oil imports contracted to $X in 2022. Overall, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 69%. The level of import peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

South Africa dominates imports structure, amounting to X tons, which was approx. 89% of total imports in 2022. The following importers - Tanzania (X tons), Zambia (X tons) and Zimbabwe (X tons) - together made up 6.9% of total imports.

Imports into South Africa decreased at an average annual rate of -3.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Zambia (+11.6%) and Zimbabwe (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Zambia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +11.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Tanzania (-17.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of South Africa (+5.8 p.p.) and Zambia (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Tanzania (-10.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported palm kernel and babassu oil in SADC, comprising 90% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($X), with a 3.3% share of total imports. It was followed by Zimbabwe, with a 2.4% share.

In South Africa, palm kernel oil imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Tanzania (-11.9% per year) and Zimbabwe (+3.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, growing by 19% against the previous year. Import price indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm kernel oil import price increased by +126.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 73% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Zimbabwe ($X per ton) and Tanzania ($X per ton), while Zambia ($X per ton) and South Africa ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+6.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform