SADC: Palm Oil Market 2024

Palm Oil Market Size in SADC

The SADC palm oil market expanded modestly to $X in 2022, surging by 2.8% against the previous year. The total consumption indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +29.3% against 2014 indices. The level of consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Palm Oil Production in SADC

In value terms, palm oil production declined to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 73% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Palm Oil Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, approx. X tons of palm oil were exported in SADC; waning by -29% on the year before. Overall, exports recorded a pronounced decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 20%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, palm oil exports declined to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 62%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X, and then dropped in the following year.

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the largest exporting country with an export of around X tons, which reached 56% of total exports. Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 27% share, followed by Zambia (7.6%). Mozambique (X tons), Madagascar (X tons) and Tanzania (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

South Africa was also the fastest-growing in terms of the palm oil exports, with a CAGR of +15.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Mozambique (+6.4%) and Madagascar (+3.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Zambia (-3.9%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (-5.5%) and Tanzania (-21.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of South Africa (+47 p.p.) and Mozambique (+2.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Democratic Republic of the Congo (-4.1 p.p.) and Tanzania (-9.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest palm oil supplier in SADC, comprising 56% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mozambique ($X), with a 24% share of total exports. It was followed by Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa stood at +16.6%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mozambique (+27.4% per year) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (-5.3% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, picking up by 22% against the previous year. Export price indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm oil export price increased by +98.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 62%. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mozambique ($X per ton), while Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique (+19.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Palm Oil Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in supplies from abroad of palm oil, when their volume increased by 1.3% to X tons. Total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -21.5% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 44%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, palm oil imports rose slightly to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports posted a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

South Africa represented the main importer of palm oil in SADC, with the volume of imports accounting for X tons, which was approx. 36% of total imports in 2022. Tanzania (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 17% share, followed by Mozambique (13%), Angola (11%), Madagascar (7.8%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (4.6%) and Zambia (4.6%).

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to palm oil imports into South Africa stood at +2.6%. At the same time, Madagascar (+18.2%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+15.2%), Mozambique (+15.0%) and Tanzania (+9.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Madagascar emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +18.2% from 2012-2022. Angola experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Zambia (-1.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Mozambique (+7.6 p.p.), Tanzania (+5.3 p.p.), Madagascar (+5.2 p.p.) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (+2.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Zambia (-4.8 p.p.), Angola (-6.8 p.p.) and South Africa (-12.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported palm oil in SADC, comprising 42% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mozambique ($X), with a 17% share of total imports. It was followed by Angola, with a 9.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in South Africa amounted to +5.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mozambique (+27.1% per year) and Angola (-1.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, picking up by 2.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 42%. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mozambique ($X per ton), while Tanzania ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique (+10.6%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform