SADC: Rye Market 2025

Rye Market Size in SADC

In 2022, the SADC rye market increased by 3,138% to $X for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, consumption saw a significant expansion. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Rye Production in SADC

In value terms, rye production expanded rapidly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -19.1% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 136% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

The country with the largest volume of rye production was South Africa (X tons), comprising approx. 93% of total volume. Moreover, rye production in South Africa exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Zambia (X tons), more than tenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in South Africa stood at -1.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Zambia (+2.2% per year) and Tanzania (+1.9% per year).

In 2022, the average rye yield in SADC reduced to X tons per ha, remaining stable against the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the yield increased by 8% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the rye yield remained at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of rye production in SADC reached X ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 21%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to rye production attained the maximum at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Rye Exports

Exports in SADC

After two years of growth, shipments abroad of rye decreased by -92.9% to X tons in 2022. Overall, exports faced a sharp decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 805%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, rye exports shrank sharply to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports faced a dramatic downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 3,676%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in exports structure, resulting at X tons, which was near 94% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Zambia (X tons), generating a 5.5% share of total exports.

Exports from South Africa decreased at an average annual rate of -30.7% from 2012 to 2022. Zambia (-4.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Zambia (+5.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of South Africa (-5.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest rye supplier in SADC, comprising 98% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Zambia ($X), with a 1.5% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa amounted to -31.3%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 1.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a mild decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 317% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Zambia amounted to $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (-0.9%).

Rye Imports

Imports in SADC

Rye imports surged to X tons in 2022, with an increase of 28,027% compared with 2021. In general, imports showed a significant expansion. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, rye imports soared to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw significant growth. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of rye imports in 2022 were Tanzania (X tons), together reaching 100% of total import.

Tanzania was also the fastest-growing in terms of the rye imports, with a CAGR of +634.3% from 2012 to 2022. While the share of Tanzania (+99 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Tanzania ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported rye in SADC.

In Tanzania, rye imports expanded at an average annual rate of +960.1% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, reducing by -33.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a abrupt contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 135% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Tanzania.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Tanzania amounted to +44.3% per year.

Source: IndexBox Platform