SADC: Skim Milk Market 2024

Skim Milk Market Size in SADC

In 2021, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in the SADC skim milk market, when its value decreased by -5.8% to $X. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Skim Milk Production in SADC

In value terms, skim milk production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total production indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production increased by +41.7% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 70%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Tanzania (X tons) remains the largest skim milk producing country in SADC, comprising approx. 69% of total volume. Moreover, skim milk production in Tanzania exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, South Africa (X tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Botswana (X tons), with a 4.1% share.

In Tanzania, skim milk production increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2012-2021. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: South Africa (-3.7% per year) and Botswana (-4.4% per year).

Skim Milk Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2021, overseas shipments of skim milk increased by 1.3% to X tons, rising for the fourth consecutive year after five years of decline. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a noticeable contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 45% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, skim milk exports skyrocketed to $X in 2021. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable descent. The level of export peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

The biggest shipments were from South Africa (X tons), together amounting to 98% of total export.

South Africa was also the fastest-growing in terms of the skim milk exports, with a CAGR of -3.3% from 2012 to 2021. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) also remains the largest skim milk supplier in SADC.

In South Africa, skim milk exports decreased by an average annual rate of -4.7% over the period from 2012-2021.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in SADC amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, saw a slight setback. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2021, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for South Africa.

From 2012 to 2021, the rate of growth in terms of prices for South Africa amounted to -1.4% per year.

Skim Milk Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2021, purchases abroad of skim milk increased by 6.7% to X tons, rising for the third year in a row after three years of decline. Total imports indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports increased by +112.9% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 53%. The volume of import peaked in 2021 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, skim milk imports soared to $X in 2021. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a mild descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 36%. The level of import peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Botswana represented the major importer of skim milk in SADC, with the volume of imports resulting at X tons, which was near 47% of total imports in 2021. Lesotho (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by South Africa (X tons), Namibia (X tons) and Swaziland (X tons). All these countries together took near 45% share of total imports. Angola (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Botswana was also the fastest-growing in terms of the skim milk imports, with a CAGR of +17.0% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, South Africa (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Angola (-4.0%), Namibia (-4.6%), Swaziland (-5.1%) and Lesotho (-6.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Botswana (+34 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2021, the share of Swaziland (-4 p.p.), Namibia (-5.2 p.p.) and Lesotho (-16.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest skim milk importing markets in SADC were Botswana ($X), Lesotho ($X) and South Africa ($X), together accounting for 76% of total imports.

Botswana, with a CAGR of +16.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2021, surging by 14% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a pronounced slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the import price increased by 21% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2014 to 2021, the import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Lesotho ($X per ton), while Botswana ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+1.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform