SADC: Urea Market 2024

Urea Exports

Exports in SADC

In 2022, overseas shipments of urea increased by 47% to X tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, exports saw a resilient increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when exports increased by 88% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, urea exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports enjoyed resilient growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 109%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

South Africa was the main exporter of urea in SADC, with the volume of exports accounting for X tons, which was near 80% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Mozambique (X tons), creating a 15% share of total exports. Tanzania (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +14.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Mozambique (+27.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Mozambique emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in SADC, with a CAGR of +27.3% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Tanzania (-18.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of South Africa and Mozambique increased by +24 and +11 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest urea supplier in SADC, comprising 81% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mozambique ($X), with a 15% share of total exports.

In South Africa, urea exports increased at an average annual rate of +12.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mozambique (+20.8% per year) and Tanzania (-19.8% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, picking up by 5% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a perceptible decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 29% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Tanzania ($X per ton), while Mozambique ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (-1.8%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Urea Imports

Imports in SADC

In 2022, supplies from abroad of urea increased by 7.5% to X tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Total imports indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +39.9% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 51%. The volume of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, urea imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 90% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2022, South Africa (X tons) was the main importer of urea, creating 55% of total imports. Tanzania (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Zambia (X tons) and Zimbabwe (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 37% share of total imports. Mozambique (X tons) and Angola (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of urea. At the same time, Zimbabwe (+26.4%), Tanzania (+23.7%), Angola (+8.5%) and Zambia (+8.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Zimbabwe emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in SADC, with a CAGR of +26.4% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Mozambique (-5.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Tanzania (+19 p.p.), Zimbabwe (+5.8 p.p.) and Zambia (+2.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Mozambique and South Africa saw its share reduced by -5.3% and -21.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported urea in SADC, comprising 67% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($X), with a 16% share of total imports. It was followed by Zimbabwe, with a 4.9% share.

In South Africa, urea imports increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tanzania (+24.2% per year) and Zimbabwe (+21.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in SADC stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of 45% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 46% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($X per ton), while Zambia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+5.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform