Serbia: Market for Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates 2024

Market Size for Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates in Serbia

In 2022, the Serbian market for processed petroleum oils and distillates increased by 6.3% to $X, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Production of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates in Serbia

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates

Exports from Serbia

In 2022, shipments abroad of processed petroleum oils and distillates decreased by -11.9% to X tons for the first time since 2015, thus ending a six-year rising trend. Overall, total exports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +9.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +37.7% against 2014 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 48%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates exports surged to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a remarkable increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 113% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Bosnia and Herzegovina (X tons) was the main destination for processed petroleum oils and distillates exports from Serbia, accounting for a 46% share of total exports. Moreover, processed petroleum oils and distillates exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Romania (X tons), fivefold. Slovakia (X tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with an 8.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Bosnia and Herzegovina totaled +34.2%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Romania (-4.6% per year) and Slovakia (+76.5% per year).

In value terms, Bosnia and Herzegovina ($X) remains the key foreign market for processed petroleum oils and distillates exports from Serbia, comprising 46% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Romania ($X), with a 10% share of total exports. It was followed by Bulgaria, with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value to Bosnia and Herzegovina totaled +38.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Romania (-1.4% per year) and Bulgaria (+18.5% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average export price for processed petroleum oils and distillates stood at $X per ton in 2022, growing by 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price posted a moderate expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 68% against the previous year. The export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Slovakia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Ukraine (+8.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates

Imports into Serbia

In 2022, imports of processed petroleum oils and distillates into Serbia skyrocketed to X tons, rising by 36% against 2021. In general, imports continue to indicate a resilient expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 78% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a perceptible decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 78% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

Hungary (X tons), Slovakia (X tons) and Bulgaria (X tons) were the main suppliers of processed petroleum oils and distillates imports to Serbia, together comprising 31% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Slovakia (with a CAGR of +126.5%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Hungary ($X), Slovakia ($X) and North Macedonia ($X) appeared to be the largest processed petroleum oils and distillates suppliers to Serbia, together accounting for 28% of total imports.

Among the main suppliers, Slovakia, with a CAGR of +104.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.

Import Prices by Country

The average import price for processed petroleum oils and distillates stood at $X per ton in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a abrupt downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 61%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the highest price was recorded for prices from Bosnia and Herzegovina ($X per ton) and Croatia ($X per ton), while the price for Bulgaria ($X per ton) and Hungary ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bosnia and Herzegovina (-5.7%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform