South Africa: Market for Flaked or Rolled Cereals 2025

Market Size for Flaked or Rolled Cereals in South Africa

In 2022, the South African flaked or rolled cereal market decreased by -0.8% to $X for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year rising trend. In general, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market reached the maximum level at $X in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Production of Flaked or Rolled Cereals in South Africa

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal production stood at $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 43%. Flaked or rolled cereal production peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Exports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Exports from South Africa

In 2022, flaked or rolled cereal exports from South Africa soared to X tons, jumping by 31% compared with 2021 figures. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 42% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal exports soared to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, recorded a abrupt contraction. The exports peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Swaziland (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Mozambique (X tons) were the main destinations of flaked or rolled cereal exports from South Africa, with a combined 54% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +42.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Swaziland ($X), Uganda ($X) and Namibia ($X) appeared to be the largest markets for flaked or rolled cereal exported from South Africa worldwide, with a combined 52% share of total exports.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Uganda, with a CAGR of +43.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average flaked or rolled cereal export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 an increase of 49% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Namibia ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Mozambique ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Zimbabwe (+2.4%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Imports into South Africa

In 2022, approx. X tons of flaked or rolled cereals were imported into South Africa; with a decrease of -13.8% on the year before. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a slight curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 131% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal imports fell dramatically to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 73% against the previous year. Imports peaked at $X in 2021, and then shrank dramatically in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, the UK (X tons) constituted the largest flaked or rolled cereal supplier to South Africa, with a 54% share of total imports. Moreover, flaked or rolled cereal imports from the UK exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Lithuania (X tons), threefold. Swaziland (X tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from the UK amounted to +1.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Lithuania (+13.4% per year) and Swaziland (+132.7% per year).

In value terms, the UK ($X), Lithuania ($X) and Latvia ($X) appeared to be the largest flaked or rolled cereal suppliers to South Africa, together comprising 81% of total imports. Swaziland, Finland and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 13%.

In terms of the main suppliers, Swaziland, with a CAGR of +122.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average flaked or rolled cereal import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, waning by -2.5% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, flaked or rolled cereal import price increased by +107.1% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 67%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2021, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($X per ton), while the price for Australia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Latvia (+18.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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