South Africa: Ethanol Market 2024

Ethanol Market Size in South Africa

In 2022, the South African ethanol market decreased by -5.5% to $X, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -10.0% against 2020 indices. Ethanol consumption peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Ethanol Production in South Africa

In value terms, ethanol production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 17%. Ethanol production peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Ethanol Exports

Exports from South Africa

In 2022, overseas shipments of ethyl alcohol increased by 1.1% to X litres, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. Overall, total exports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +11.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at X litres in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. In general, total exports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +34.5% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

The United Arab Emirates (X litres), Belgium (X litres) and the United States (X litres) were the main destinations of ethanol exports from South Africa, together comprising 52% of total exports. South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Tanzania, Angola, Ghana, Jordan, Nigeria, Madagascar and Zimbabwe lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Japan (with a CAGR of +395.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($X), Belgium ($X) and the United States ($X) were the largest markets for ethanol exported from South Africa worldwide, together accounting for 50% of total exports. These countries were followed by South Korea, Singapore, Tanzania, Japan, Angola, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Nigeria and Jordan, which together accounted for a further 38%.

Among the main countries of destination, Japan, with a CAGR of +381.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average ethanol export price stood at $X per litre in 2022, surging by 20% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Zimbabwe ($X per litre), while the average price for exports to Jordan ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Tanzania (+3.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Ethanol Imports

Imports into South Africa

In 2022, the amount of ethyl alcohol imported into South Africa contracted markedly to X litres, shrinking by -98.1% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, imports recorded a precipitous decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 304% against the previous year. Imports peaked at X litres in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol imports reduced notably to $X in 2022. Overall, imports faced a significant curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 360% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Swaziland (X litres) constituted the largest supplier of ethanol to South Africa, with a 69% share of total imports. Moreover, ethanol imports from Swaziland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the United States (X litres), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Switzerland (X litres), with a 5.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Swaziland totaled +16.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United States (+49.7% per year) and Switzerland (+76.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest ethanol suppliers to South Africa were Swaziland ($X), Germany ($X) and the United States ($X), together accounting for 76% of total imports. Switzerland, France and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 7.1%.

In terms of the main suppliers, Switzerland, with a CAGR of +19.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average ethanol import price stood at $X per litre in 2022, jumping by 160% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a prominent expansion. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($X per litre), while the price for Swaziland ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Zimbabwe (+5.0%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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