South Africa: Maize Market 2025

Maize Market Size in South Africa

The South African maize market dropped slightly to $X in 2022, declining by -2.3% against the previous year. In general, the total consumption indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +3.7% against 2020 indices. Maize consumption peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Maize Production in South Africa

In value terms, maize production shrank modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +3.4% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 40%. Maize production peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The average yield of maize (green) in South Africa contracted modestly to X tons per ha in 2022, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 1.6% against the previous year. The maize yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then fell in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the harvested area of maize (green) in South Africa contracted slightly to X ha, leveling off at the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the harvested area increased by 4.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to maize production attained the maximum at X ha in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Maize Exports

Exports from South Africa

Maize exports from South Africa shrank to X tons in 2022, dropping by -7.1% against 2021 figures. Overall, exports continue to indicate a noticeable slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 16%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, maize exports stood at $X in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -22.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Mozambique (X tons), the Netherlands (X tons) and Namibia (X tons) were the main destinations of maize exports from South Africa, with a combined 53% share of total exports. The UK, Botswana, Italy, Zambia, Lesotho, Saudi Arabia, Mauritius, the United Arab Emirates, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +88.4%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for maize exported from South Africa were the Netherlands ($X), the UK ($X) and Mozambique ($X), with a combined 56% share of total exports. The United Arab Emirates, Namibia, Botswana, Italy, Mauritius, Zambia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Saudi Arabia and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Italy, with a CAGR of +74.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average maize export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, growing by 10% against the previous year. Overall, the export price enjoyed a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 an increase of 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Spain ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Italy (+21.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Maize Imports

Imports into South Africa

After three years of decline, overseas purchases of maize (green) increased by 1.5% to X tons in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a abrupt decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 73% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, maize imports contracted to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a perceptible decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 128% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Mozambique (X tons) constituted the largest maize supplier to South Africa, with a 47% share of total imports. Moreover, maize imports from Mozambique exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Kenya (X tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Zambia (X tons), with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Mozambique was relatively modest. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Kenya (-3.0% per year) and Zambia (-1.0% per year).

In value terms, Mozambique ($X) constituted the largest supplier of maize (green) to South Africa, comprising 63% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Zambia ($X), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Kenya, with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Mozambique amounted to -1.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Zambia (-0.1% per year) and Kenya (-1.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average maize import price amounted to $X per ton, waning by -10% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, posted a strong increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average import price increased by 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Zambia ($X per ton), while the price for Swaziland ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Namibia (+12.7%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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