South Africa: Nitrogen Market 2024

Nitrogen Market Size in South Africa

The South African nitrogen market reached $X in 2021, approximately reflecting the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Production in South Africa

In value terms, nitrogen production totaled $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Nitrogen production peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, production failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Exports

Exports from South Africa

In 2021, shipments abroad of nitrogen was finally on the rise to reach X cubic meters for the first time since 2018, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 154%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X cubic meters. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen exports soared to $X in 2021. In general, exports, however, faced a drastic downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 148%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Mozambique (X cubic meters), Botswana (X cubic meters) and Mali (X cubic meters) were the main destinations of nitrogen exports from South Africa, together accounting for 60% of total exports. These countries were followed by Kenya, Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Singapore, Burkina Faso and Guinea, which together accounted for a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were recorded for Guinea (with a CAGR of +36.2%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mozambique ($X), Botswana ($X) and Mali ($X) were the largest markets for nitrogen exported from South Africa worldwide, together comprising 60% of total exports. Kenya, Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Singapore, Burkina Faso and Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Among the main countries of destination, Guinea, with a CAGR of +35.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the average nitrogen export price amounted to $X per cubic meter, surging by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The export price peaked at $X per cubic meter in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably for the major overseas markets. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the countries with the highest prices were Tanzania ($X per cubic meter) and Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per cubic meter), while the average price for exports to Singapore ($X per cubic meter) and Mozambique ($X per cubic meter) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Egypt (+5.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Nitrogen Imports

Imports into South Africa

In 2021, approx. X cubic meters of nitrogen were imported into South Africa; dropping by -19.5% compared with 2020. In general, imports saw a slight decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 171% against the previous year. Imports peaked at X cubic meters in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen imports shrank slightly to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a slight expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 187%. Imports peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2021, the United States (X cubic meters) constituted the largest supplier of nitrogen to South Africa, accounting for a 45% share of total imports. Moreover, nitrogen imports from the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Belgium (X cubic meters), threefold. The UK (X cubic meters) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 8.7% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from the United States totaled +7.8%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Belgium (-0.2% per year) and the UK (-18.0% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($X) constituted the largest supplier of nitrogen to South Africa, comprising 43% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Belgium ($X), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by Singapore, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from the United States totaled +14.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Belgium (+7.3% per year) and Singapore (+72.9% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the average nitrogen import price amounted to $X per cubic meter, picking up by 21% against the previous year. Over the last nine-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Singapore ($X per cubic meter), while the price for France ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+10.4%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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