South Africa: Unmanufactured Tobacco Market 2025

Unmanufactured Tobacco Market Size in South Africa

In 2022, the South African unmanufactured tobacco market was finally on the rise to reach $X for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a abrupt slump. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Production in South Africa

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 40% against the previous year. Unmanufactured tobacco production peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In 2022, the average yield of tobacco (unmanufactured) in South Africa rose sharply to X tons per ha, increasing by 13% against 2021. Overall, the yield, however, recorded a slight shrinkage. The unmanufactured tobacco yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of tobacco (unmanufactured) were harvested in South Africa; growing by 2.1% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.7%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to unmanufactured tobacco production reached the peak figure at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Exports

Exports from South Africa

In 2022, shipments abroad of tobacco (unmanufactured) decreased by -32.2% to X tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In general, exports, however, showed mild growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 98%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2021, and then dropped sharply in the following year.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco exports declined notably to $X in 2022. Overall, exports, however, enjoyed a perceptible expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 146% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $X in 2021, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.

Exports by Country

Kenya (X tons) was the main destination for unmanufactured tobacco exports from South Africa, accounting for a 28% share of total exports. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco exports to Kenya exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, South Korea (X tons), twofold. Sweden (X tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Kenya stood at +6.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: South Korea (-15.0% per year) and Sweden (+5.4% per year).

In value terms, Kenya ($X) emerged as the key foreign market for tobacco (unmanufactured) exports from South Africa, comprising 26% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by South Korea ($X), with a 12% share of total exports. It was followed by Sweden, with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value to Kenya totaled +2.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: South Korea (-18.3% per year) and Sweden (+4.3% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the average unmanufactured tobacco export price amounted to $X per ton, surging by 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 45%. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Sweden ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Belgium ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Indonesia (+40.6%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Imports

Imports into South Africa

After three years of decline, purchases abroad of tobacco (unmanufactured) increased by 1.9% to X tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a abrupt descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 33%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco imports shrank modestly to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 53%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Zimbabwe (X tons) constituted the largest supplier of unmanufactured tobacco to South Africa, accounting for a 74% share of total imports. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco imports from Zimbabwe exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Zambia (X tons), tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Brazil (X tons), with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Zimbabwe totaled +3.8%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Zambia (+35.1% per year) and Brazil (-15.1% per year).

In value terms, Zimbabwe ($X) constituted the largest supplier of tobacco (unmanufactured) to South Africa, comprising 66% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($X), with an 8.9% share of total imports. It was followed by Mozambique, with a 7.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Zimbabwe was relatively modest. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Brazil (-19.8% per year) and Mozambique (+1.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average unmanufactured tobacco import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, which is down by -5.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a noticeable contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 an increase of 15% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mozambique ($X per ton), while the price for Zambia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique (+0.6%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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