South Africa: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in South Africa

The South African wheat market expanded significantly to $X in 2022, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +69.8% against 2017 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Wheat Production in South Africa

In value terms, wheat production expanded modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a perceptible setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the production volume increased by 34%. Wheat production peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In 2022, the average yield of wheat in South Africa contracted modestly to X tons per ha, with a decrease of -1.8% compared with 2021. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 46% against the previous year. The wheat yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of wheat were harvested in South Africa; flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 7.3% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of X ha. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the wheat harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports from South Africa

For the fourth consecutive year, South Africa recorded growth in overseas shipments of wheat, which increased by 80% to X tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 117%. The exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, wheat exports surged to $X in 2022. Overall, exports enjoyed a buoyant expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 129%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Zimbabwe (X tons), Lesotho (X tons) and Botswana (X tons) were the main destinations of wheat exports from South Africa, with a combined 55% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Zimbabwe (with a CAGR of +27.2%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Zimbabwe ($X), Lesotho ($X) and Botswana ($X) were the largest markets for wheat exported from South Africa worldwide, with a combined 60% share of total exports.

Zimbabwe, with a CAGR of +29.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average wheat export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Zimbabwe ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Mozambique ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Botswana (+2.1%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

Imports into South Africa

Wheat imports into South Africa was estimated at X tons in 2022, growing by 4.6% against the previous year's figure. In general, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +101.5% against 2016 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Australia (X tons), Argentina (X tons) and Poland (X tons) were the main suppliers of wheat imports to South Africa, with a combined 64% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +32.8%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat suppliers to South Africa were Australia ($X), Poland ($X) and Argentina ($X), with a combined 65% share of total imports.

Among the main suppliers, Poland, with a CAGR of +36.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average wheat import price stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of 28% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat import price increased by +81.6% against 2017 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the countries with the highest prices were Poland ($X per ton) and Germany ($X per ton), while the price for Latvia ($X per ton) and Argentina ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+8.8%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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