South-Eastern Asia: Unmanufactured Tobacco Market 2024

Unmanufactured Tobacco Market Size in South-Eastern Asia

After five years of growth, the Southeast Asian unmanufactured tobacco market decreased by -3.7% to $X in 2022. In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Production in South-Eastern Asia

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production contracted slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -1.1% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 27% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The country with the largest volume of unmanufactured tobacco production was Indonesia (X tons), accounting for 52% of total volume. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Thailand (X tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the Philippines (X tons), with an 11% share.

In Indonesia, unmanufactured tobacco production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Thailand (-0.1% per year) and the Philippines (+0.7% per year).

In 2022, the average unmanufactured tobacco yield in South-Eastern Asia fell modestly to X tons per ha, approximately reflecting 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the yield increased by 7.8%. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of tobacco (unmanufactured) production in South-Eastern Asia rose to X ha, with an increase of 2.5% against the year before. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a noticeable slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the harvested area increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to unmanufactured tobacco production attained the maximum at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Exports

Exports in South-Eastern Asia

In 2022, shipments abroad of tobacco (unmanufactured) increased by 47% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 48% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco exports surged to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +56.1% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Indonesia (X tons) and the Philippines (X tons) represented the key exporters of tobacco (unmanufactured) in 2022, reaching approx. 45% and 31% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Thailand (X tons) and Singapore (X tons), together achieving a 17% share of total exports. Vietnam (X tons) and Lao People's Democratic Republic (X tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Lao People's Democratic Republic (with a CAGR of +18.2%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($X) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco supplier in South-Eastern Asia, comprising 54% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Philippines ($X), with a 26% share of total exports. It was followed by Thailand, with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Indonesia amounted to +9.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Philippines (+9.2% per year) and Thailand (-2.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in South-Eastern Asia amounted to $X per ton, which is down by -3.7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the export price increased by 36%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($X per ton), while Vietnam ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+5.2%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Imports

Imports in South-Eastern Asia

In 2022, supplies from abroad of tobacco (unmanufactured) increased by 16% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco imports fell slightly to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when imports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Indonesia (X tons) represented the key importer of tobacco (unmanufactured), creating 49% of total imports. The Philippines (X tons) took a 20% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Vietnam (18%) and Singapore (5.9%). Malaysia (X tons) and Myanmar (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Indonesia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of tobacco (unmanufactured). At the same time, Vietnam (+9.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in South-Eastern Asia, with a CAGR of +9.9% from 2012-2022. Singapore and the Philippines experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Myanmar (-11.4%) and Malaysia (-13.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Vietnam and Indonesia increased by +11 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Indonesia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported tobacco (unmanufactured) in South-Eastern Asia, comprising 48% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Philippines ($X), with a 21% share of total imports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 21% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Indonesia amounted to -1.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Philippines (+5.4% per year) and Vietnam (+9.4% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in South-Eastern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, which is down by -15.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the import price increased by 9.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Vietnam ($X per ton), while Malaysia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Myanmar (+8.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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