South-Eastern Asia: Wheat Market 2024

Wheat Market Size in South-Eastern Asia

In 2022, the Southeast Asian wheat market increased by 9.2% to $X, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +32.9% against 2020 indices. The level of consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Wheat Production in South-Eastern Asia

In value terms, wheat production stood at $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a deep contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 443%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2018 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Myanmar (X tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat production, accounting for 99% of total volume.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Myanmar stood at -5.3%.

The average wheat yield rose sharply to X tons per ha in 2022, with an increase of 13% compared with 2021. In general, the yield, however, continues to indicate a mild descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 58% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the wheat yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of wheat production in South-Eastern Asia declined to X ha, which is down by -9.4% on the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area showed a perceptible contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 23%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in South-Eastern Asia

In 2022, exports of wheat in South-Eastern Asia expanded to X tons, picking up by 4.7% on 2021 figures. Overall, exports showed a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 621%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat exports reduced modestly to $X in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a moderate expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 369%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Vietnam dominates exports structure, recording X tons, which was approx. 96% of total exports in 2022. Indonesia (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Vietnam was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wheat exports, with a CAGR of +59.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Indonesia (+33.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of Vietnam (+93 p.p.) and Indonesia (+2.8 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Vietnam ($X) remains the largest wheat supplier in South-Eastern Asia, comprising 93% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Indonesia ($X), with a 4.5% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Vietnam totaled +56.4%.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in South-Eastern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, waning by -8.9% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the export price increased by 20% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($X per ton), while Vietnam totaled $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (-1.2%).

Wheat Imports

Imports in South-Eastern Asia

In 2022, the amount of wheat imported in South-Eastern Asia shrank to X tons, waning by -5.4% compared with the year before. Total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +3.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, wheat imports surged to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +53.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 30% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

Indonesia was the major importing country with an import of about X tons, which recorded 45% of total imports. The Philippines (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Vietnam (X tons), Thailand (X tons) and Malaysia (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 53% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in South-Eastern Asia were Indonesia ($X), the Philippines ($X) and Vietnam ($X), with a combined 87% share of total imports.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +10.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in South-Eastern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 25% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Thailand ($X per ton) and Indonesia ($X per ton), while Vietnam ($X per ton) and Malaysia ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+2.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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