Southern Asia: Tobacco Market 2024

Tobacco Market Size in Southern Asia

In 2021, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in the South Asian tobacco market, when its value decreased by -5.4% to $X. The total consumption indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption increased by +18.2% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2020, and then contracted in the following year.

Tobacco Production in Southern Asia

In value terms, tobacco production contracted to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total production indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production increased by +19.7% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 40% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2020, and then shrank in the following year.

Tobacco Exports

Exports in Southern Asia

In 2021, shipments abroad of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) decreased by -2.4% to X tons, falling for the third consecutive year after seven years of growth. Total exports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports decreased by -19.7% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2019 to 2021, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, tobacco exports expanded rapidly to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports, however, enjoyed a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

India was the main exporter of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) in Southern Asia, with the volume of exports accounting for X tons, which was approx. 75% of total exports in 2021. It was distantly followed by Pakistan (X tons), mixing up a 20% share of total exports. The following exporters - Sri Lanka (X tons) and Bangladesh (X tons) - each amounted to a 4% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to tobacco exports from India stood at +2.5%. At the same time, Pakistan (+49.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Southern Asia, with a CAGR of +49.7% from 2012-2021. By contrast, Sri Lanka (-2.3%) and Bangladesh (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Pakistan (+19 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2021, the share of Sri Lanka (-2 p.p.), Bangladesh (-2.1 p.p.) and India (-14.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, India ($X) remains the largest tobacco supplier in Southern Asia, comprising 74% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Sri Lanka ($X), with an 18% share of total exports. It was followed by Pakistan, with a 6.4% share.

In India, tobacco exports increased at an average annual rate of +10.1% over the period from 2012-2021. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Sri Lanka (+6.2% per year) and Pakistan (+47.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Southern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2021, increasing by 13% against the previous year. Over the last nine years, it increased at an average annual rate of +5.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the export price increased by 23%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs in 2021 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Sri Lanka ($X per ton), while Pakistan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sri Lanka (+8.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Tobacco Imports

Imports in Southern Asia

In 2021, imports of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) in Southern Asia surged to X tons, with an increase of 25% against the year before. Total imports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +8.4% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports decreased by -1.2% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 30%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tobacco imports soared to $X in 2021. Total imports indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports decreased by -8.3% against 2019 indices. The level of import peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Afghanistan was the key importing country with an import of around X tons, which reached 56% of total imports. India (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Pakistan (X tons) and Nepal (X tons). All these countries together took near 37% share of total imports. Sri Lanka (X tons) and Bangladesh (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to tobacco imports into Afghanistan stood at +4.3%. At the same time, Pakistan (+31.7%), Nepal (+29.6%), India (+15.5%), Sri Lanka (+13.0%) and Bangladesh (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Southern Asia, with a CAGR of +31.7% from 2012-2021. Pakistan (+11 p.p.), India (+7.6 p.p.) and Nepal (+4.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Bangladesh and Afghanistan saw its share reduced by -1.9% and -23.3% from 2012 to 2021, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Afghanistan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) in Southern Asia, comprising 50% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($X), with a 21% share of total imports. It was followed by Pakistan, with an 11% share.

In Afghanistan, tobacco imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+15.9% per year) and Pakistan (+28.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the import price in Southern Asia amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a pronounced decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the import price increased by 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Sri Lanka ($X per ton), while Pakistan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nepal (+7.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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