Southern Asia: Unmanufactured Tobacco Market 2024

Unmanufactured Tobacco Market Size in Southern Asia

For the third year in a row, the South Asian unmanufactured tobacco market recorded decline in sales value, which decreased by -9.4% to $X in 2022. In general, consumption recorded a slight slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 7.7% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Production in Southern Asia

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production contracted slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 6.2%. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

India (X tons) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco producing country in Southern Asia, comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Pakistan (X tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Sri Lanka (X tons), with a 12% share.

In India, unmanufactured tobacco production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Pakistan (+4.4% per year) and Sri Lanka (+3.7% per year).

In 2022, the average unmanufactured tobacco yield in Southern Asia declined slightly to X tons per ha, with a decrease of -4.3% on the previous year's figure. Overall, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 8.2% against the previous year. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of X tons per ha, and then reduced modestly in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of tobacco (unmanufactured) were harvested in Southern Asia; remaining constant against 2021. In general, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 3.3%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to unmanufactured tobacco production attained the maximum at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Exports

Exports in Southern Asia

In 2022, approx. X tons of tobacco (unmanufactured) were exported in Southern Asia; growing by 12% against the year before. Total exports indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +73.7% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 37%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

In 2022, India (X tons) represented the main exporter of tobacco (unmanufactured), generating 65% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Sri Lanka (X tons) and Bangladesh (X tons), together creating a 32% share of total exports. Pakistan (X tons) took a minor share of total exports.

India experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of tobacco (unmanufactured). At the same time, Sri Lanka (+21.9%), Bangladesh (+11.8%) and Pakistan (+7.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sri Lanka emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Southern Asia, with a CAGR of +21.9% from 2012-2022. While the share of Sri Lanka (+16 p.p.) and Bangladesh (+5.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of India (-22.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($X) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco supplier in Southern Asia, comprising 72% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Bangladesh ($X), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Sri Lanka, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India amounted to +1.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Bangladesh (+11.8% per year) and Sri Lanka (+11.8% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Southern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, growing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the export price increased by 13%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Bangladesh ($X per ton), while Sri Lanka ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+0.6%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Imports

Imports in Southern Asia

In 2022, the amount of tobacco (unmanufactured) imported in Southern Asia dropped remarkably to X tons, declining by -21.9% against the previous year. Total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +35.1% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 60% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco imports dropped to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 28% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X, and then declined in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Sri Lanka (X tons), Pakistan (X tons) and Nepal (X tons) was the major importer of tobacco (unmanufactured) in Southern Asia, making up 83% of total import. It was distantly followed by India (X tons), constituting a 12% share of total imports. Bangladesh (X tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +19.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Sri Lanka ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported tobacco (unmanufactured) in Southern Asia, comprising 43% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Pakistan ($X), with a 21% share of total imports. It was followed by Nepal, with a 17% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Sri Lanka was relatively modest. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Pakistan (+9.3% per year) and Nepal (+2.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Southern Asia amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 21% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a noticeable curtailment. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Sri Lanka ($X per ton), while Nepal ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (-0.8%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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