Southern Asia: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in Southern Asia

The South Asian wheat market shrank to $X in 2022, declining by -2.4% against the previous year. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 9% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Production in Southern Asia

In value terms, wheat production dropped modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 8.6% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

The country with the largest volume of wheat production was India (X tons), comprising approx. 76% of total volume. Moreover, wheat production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Pakistan (X tons), fourfold. Afghanistan (X tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.2% share.

In India, wheat production increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Pakistan (+1.2% per year) and Afghanistan (-1.1% per year).

The average wheat yield contracted to X tons per ha in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 7.1%. Over the period under review, the wheat yield attained the maximum level at X tons per ha in 2021, and then shrank in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of wheat production in Southern Asia stood at X ha, approximately mirroring 2021 figures. Overall, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 6.1%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in Southern Asia

In 2022, exports of wheat in Southern Asia rose remarkably to X tons, picking up by 10% compared with the year before. Overall, exports showed a measured increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 546%. The volume of export peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wheat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a tangible expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 592% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

The biggest shipments were from India (X tons), together amounting to 99% of total export.

India was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wheat exports, with a CAGR of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India increased by +2.5 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($X) also remains the largest wheat supplier in Southern Asia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in India amounted to +4.7%.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Southern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 12% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for India.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for India amounted to +0.6% per year.

Wheat Imports

Imports in Southern Asia

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of wheat, when their volume decreased by -13.2% to X tons. In general, imports, however, showed a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 99% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat imports contracted to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded a strong increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 104%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Bangladesh (X tons) represented the major importer of wheat, generating 62% of total imports. Pakistan (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 23% share, followed by Sri Lanka (7.1%) and Afghanistan (5.6%). Nepal (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Bangladesh increased at an average annual rate of +25.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Nepal (+47.9%), Pakistan (+22.5%) and Afghanistan (+15.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Nepal emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Southern Asia, with a CAGR of +47.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Sri Lanka (-3.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Bangladesh (+25 p.p.), Pakistan (+23 p.p.) and Nepal (+2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Afghanistan and Sri Lanka saw its share reduced by -2% and -47.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in Southern Asia were Bangladesh ($X), Pakistan ($X) and Sri Lanka ($X), with a combined 93% share of total imports. Afghanistan and Nepal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 6.6%.

Nepal, with a CAGR of +52.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Southern Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, increasing by 3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 22% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Pakistan ($X per ton), while Afghanistan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nepal (+3.4%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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