Uganda: Market for Wheat and Meslin Flour 2024

Market Size for Wheat and Meslin Flour in Uganda

The Ugandan wheat and meslin flour market reached $X in 2022, with an increase of 4.6% against the previous year. In general, the total consumption indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -4.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Production of Wheat and Meslin Flour in Uganda

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour production expanded modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -3.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 90%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports of Wheat and Meslin Flour

Exports from Uganda

In 2022, overseas shipments of wheat and meslin flour decreased by -5.4% to X tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a seven-year rising trend. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when exports increased by 1,437%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at X tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour exports contracted to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, showed a resilient expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 1,751%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports by Country

South Sudan (X tons) was the main destination for wheat and meslin flour exports from Uganda, accounting for a 73% share of total exports. Moreover, wheat and meslin flour exports to South Sudan exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), threefold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume to South Sudan amounted to +77.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic Republic of the Congo (+16.2% per year) and Sudan (-35.2% per year).

In value terms, South Sudan ($X) remains the key foreign market for wheat and meslin flour exports from Uganda, comprising 74% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X), with a 26% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value to South Sudan totaled +70.0%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic Republic of the Congo (+16.1% per year) and Sudan (-32.1% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average wheat and meslin flour export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat and meslin flour export price increased by +7.7% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the average export price increased by 48%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably for the major external markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Sudan ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Sudan (+4.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Imports of Wheat and Meslin Flour

Imports into Uganda

In 2022, the amount of wheat and meslin flour imported into Uganda surged to X tons, increasing by 68% compared with 2021 figures. Overall, imports saw prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 280%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 283%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Turkey (X tons) was the main wheat and meslin flour supplier to Uganda, with a 95% share of total imports. It was followed by Kenya (X tons), with a 2% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Turkey amounted to +10.5%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Kenya (-3.4% per year) and India (-0.3% per year).

In value terms, Turkey ($X) constituted the largest supplier of wheat and meslin flour to Uganda, comprising 93% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kenya ($X), with a 3.8% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value from Turkey totaled +8.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Kenya (-2.7% per year) and India (+1.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average wheat and meslin flour import price amounted to $X per ton, shrinking by -6.7% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a pronounced decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the average import price increased by 18% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kenya ($X per ton), while the price for India ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+1.3%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform