Ukraine: Nitrogen Market 2024

Nitrogen Market Size in Ukraine

In 2021, the Ukrainian nitrogen market decreased by -4.2% to $X for the first time since 2016, thus ending a four-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a strong expansion. Nitrogen consumption peaked at $X in 2020, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Nitrogen Production in Ukraine

In value terms, nitrogen production shrank slightly to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, enjoyed resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 83%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2020, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Nitrogen Exports

Exports from Ukraine

After two years of decline, shipments abroad of nitrogen increased by 5,976% to X cubic meters in 2021. In general, exports, however, saw a abrupt curtailment. The exports peaked at X cubic meters in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, nitrogen exports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a significant decline. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Belarus (X cubic meters) was the main destination for nitrogen exports from Ukraine, accounting for a 90% share of total exports. Moreover, nitrogen exports to Belarus exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Romania (X cubic meters), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Moldova (X cubic meters), with a 1.7% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Belarus amounted to +61.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Romania (0.0% per year) and Moldova (-20.0% per year).

In value terms, Belarus ($X) emerged as the key foreign market for nitrogen exports from Ukraine, comprising 72% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Romania ($X), with an 8% share of total exports. It was followed by Moldova, with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Belarus totaled +25.3%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Romania (0.0% per year) and Moldova (-15.1% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average nitrogen export price stood at $X per cubic meter in 2021, falling by -88.4% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 1,320%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per cubic meter. From 2018 to 2021, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Slovakia ($X per cubic meter), while the average price for exports to Belarus ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Slovakia (+31.0%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Nitrogen Imports

Imports into Ukraine

In 2021, supplies from abroad of nitrogen increased by 39% to X cubic meters, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, total imports indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports increased by +110.9% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at X cubic meters in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2021, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen imports surged to $X in 2021. Overall, total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +8.5% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports increased by +107.4% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Poland (X cubic meters) constituted the largest nitrogen supplier to Ukraine, with a 84% share of total imports. Moreover, nitrogen imports from Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Russia (X cubic meters), sixfold.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of volume from Poland totaled +3.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Russia (-16.4% per year) and Hungary (+22.9% per year).

In value terms, the largest nitrogen suppliers to Ukraine were Russia ($X), Poland ($X) and Hungary ($X), together comprising 95% of total imports.

In terms of the main suppliers, Hungary, with a CAGR of +61.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average nitrogen import price stood at $X per cubic meter in 2021, rising by 11% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a moderate expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 124% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per cubic meter. From 2019 to 2021, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($X per cubic meter), while the price for Poland ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+31.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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