Western Africa: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in Western Africa

For the third year in a row, the West African wheat market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 1% to $X in 2022. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a prominent expansion. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Wheat Production in Western Africa

In value terms, wheat production totaled $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a slight contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Nigeria (X tons) remains the largest wheat producing country in Western Africa, accounting for 62% of total volume. Moreover, wheat production in Nigeria exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Mali (X tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Mauritania (X tons), with a 6.1% share.

In Nigeria, wheat production decreased by an average annual rate of -3.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Mali (-3.2% per year) and Mauritania (+1.6% per year).

In 2022, the average yield of wheat in Western Africa rose rapidly to X tons per ha, increasing by 11% against the previous year. In general, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the yield increased by 38%. Over the period under review, the wheat yield reached the maximum level at X tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the wheat harvested area in Western Africa reduced remarkably to X ha, waning by -16.3% against 2021. Over the period under review, the harvested area recorded a pronounced shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 48%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Wheat Exports

Exports in Western Africa

In 2022, wheat exports in Western Africa expanded markedly to X tons, picking up by 6.3% on 2021. Total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +133.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 119%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat exports contracted to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +73.5% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 63%. The level of export peaked at $X in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Exports by Country

Liberia represented the largest exporter of wheat in Western Africa, with the volume of exports finishing at X tons, which was approx. 56% of total exports in 2022. Senegal (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 21% share, followed by Cote d'Ivoire (9.7%) and Guinea (5%). The following exporters - Togo (X tons) and Nigeria (X tons) - each amounted to a 7.8% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to wheat exports from Liberia stood at +8.7%. At the same time, Senegal (+38.5%), Cote d'Ivoire (+36.7%) and Togo (+18.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Western Africa, with a CAGR of +38.5% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Nigeria (-3.8%) and Guinea (-14.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Liberia (+23 p.p.), Senegal (+20 p.p.), Cote d'Ivoire (+9.2 p.p.) and Togo (+3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Nigeria (-3.6 p.p.) and Guinea (-26.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Liberia ($X) remains the largest wheat supplier in Western Africa, comprising 69% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Senegal ($X), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by Cote d'Ivoire, with a 6.8% share.

In Liberia, wheat exports expanded at an average annual rate of +18.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Senegal (+35.1% per year) and Cote d'Ivoire (+39.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Western Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, declining by -11.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a moderate increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 187%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2021 to 2022, the export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Liberia ($X per ton), while Guinea ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Liberia (+9.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Wheat Imports

Imports in Western Africa

In 2022, approx. X tons of wheat were imported in Western Africa; dropping by -2.9% compared with the previous year. Total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -6.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 36% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat imports stood at $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 46%. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Nigeria (X tons) was the main importer of wheat, constituting 36% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Ghana (X tons), Cote d'Ivoire (X tons), Senegal (X tons), Mauritania (X tons), Guinea (X tons) and Mali (X tons), together committing a 56% share of total imports.

Imports into Nigeria increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Guinea (+44.8%), Mali (+13.1%), Ghana (+6.8%), Senegal (+4.4%), Cote d'Ivoire (+3.6%) and Mauritania (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Guinea emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Western Africa, with a CAGR of +44.8% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Guinea and Mali increased by +7.7 and +3.2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Nigeria ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported wheat in Western Africa, comprising 69% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ghana ($X), with a 5.7% share of total imports. It was followed by Cote d'Ivoire, with a 5.6% share.

In Nigeria, wheat imports expanded at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ghana (+4.3% per year) and Cote d'Ivoire (+1.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Western Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 9.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($X per ton), while Mali ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+2.9%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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